Parma vs Sassuolo Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Parma host Sassuolo at Stadio Ennio Tardini on 24 May 2026 in a final-day Serie A fixture that could still shuffle the mid-table pack. The hosts come into the last round sitting 13th with 42 points from 37 matches, while Sassuolo are 11th on 49 points. Pride, prize money and momentum heading into the summer are all on the line in what has often been a tight and tactical Serie A clash between these two.

Stadio Ennio Tardini has seen mixed fortunes for Parma this campaign, with just 4 home wins in 18 attempts, and a negative goal difference reflecting their struggles in front of goal. Sassuolo, by contrast, have been the more expansive side, scoring 46 times across the league season but conceding 49, underlining their open style. With both teams safely away from relegation danger, this has the feel of a game where attacking talent like Mateo Pellegrino, Andrea Pinamonti and Domenico Berardi can take centre stage.

For those looking for Parma vs Sassuolo prediction angles and betting tips, the numbers lean slightly towards the visitors. Sassuolo’s attack has been more productive, and recent head-to-head meetings in Serie A and friendlies suggest a marginal edge for the Neroverdi. However, Parma’s recent uptick in results (LLLWW in league form) ensures this is far from a foregone conclusion.

Parma vs Sassuolo Key Stats

• Parma are 13th in Serie A with 42 points from 37 games, scoring 27 and conceding 46.
• The most recent Serie A meeting on 3 January 2026 at MAPEI Stadium – Città del Tricolore ended Sassuolo 1-1 Parma.
• Parma average 0.7 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded per game in Serie A this season, while Sassuolo average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.

Parma vs Sassuolo — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 13 vs 11
• Points: 42 vs 49
• Goals For: 27 vs 46
• Goals Against: 46 vs 49
• Clean Sheets: Parma 12 vs Sassuolo 8

The season record shows a clear stylistic contrast. Parma’s 27 goals in 37 matches underline a cautious, low-scoring approach, but their 46 goals conceded and an impressive 12 clean sheets suggest they can be organised and resilient when required. Sitting 13th, they have done enough to stay clear of the drop but lacked the cutting edge to push higher.

Sassuolo, in 11th with 49 points, have been more front-foot. Their 46 goals scored is among the better returns in the mid-table, but 49 conceded keeps them firmly out of European contention. Away from home they have 5 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats, with 21 goals scored and 23 conceded, which points to a side capable of creating chances on their travels but still vulnerable at the back.

Parma vs Sassuolo Key Matchups

Mateo Pellegrino vs Andrea Pinamonti

Parma’s main attacking reference this season has been Mateo Pellegrino. The 24-year-old attacker has 8 league goals and 1 assist from 36 appearances, starting 33 times and logging 2901 minutes. He has taken 50 shots with 21 on target and drawn 67 fouls, showing how often he is involved in direct duels with defenders. His 5 yellow cards reflect the physical edge to his game, and he has also converted 1 penalty.

For Sassuolo, Andrea Pinamonti leads the scoring charts with 9 goals and 3 assists in 35 appearances (31 starts, 2493 minutes). He has fired 57 shots with 30 on target and contributed 17 key passes, underlining his dual role as finisher and link man. Although he has missed a penalty and received a red card, his overall contribution in the final third is central to Sassuolo’s attacking output. This matchup pits Pellegrino’s battling hold-up play against Pinamonti’s more rounded penalty-box threat.

Armand Laurienté vs Mariano Troilo

Another intriguing battle will be between Sassuolo creator Armand Laurienté and Parma defender Mariano Troilo. Laurienté has been one of Serie A’s standout providers with 9 assists and 7 goals from 37 appearances (32 starts, 2548 minutes). He has 52 shots (26 on target), 54 key passes and 79 dribble attempts with 29 successes, highlighting his ability to carry the ball and unlock defences. His 4 yellow cards show he is not shy of the physical side either.

Troilo, meanwhile, is a key figure in Parma’s back line. In 20 appearances (17 starts, 1546 minutes), the 22-year-old defender has 1 goal and has contributed 25 tackles, 18 blocks and 16 interceptions. He has been heavily involved in duels, winning 85 of 146, and his disciplinary record is notable: 7 yellow cards, 1 yellow-red and 1 straight red. Containing Laurienté’s movement and one-v-one ability without overstepping the mark will be a major test for Troilo.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent clashes between Parma and Sassuolo have generally been competitive, with neither side dominating outright. Across league and friendlies, both teams have enjoyed wins, while several draws underline how finely balanced this fixture can be.

• 3 January 2026: Sassuolo 1-1 Parma (Serie A)
• 2 August 2023: Parma 1-0 Sassuolo (Friendlies Clubs)
• 1 August 2021: Parma 0-3 Sassuolo (Friendlies Clubs)
• 16 May 2021: Parma 1-3 Sassuolo (Serie A)
• 17 January 2021: Sassuolo 1-1 Parma (Serie A)

Parma vs Sassuolo Prediction

Analysis points to a finely balanced contest. Parma’s league form line of LLLWW hints at late-season improvement, but their season-long averages of 0.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game suggest they rarely blow teams away. Sassuolo, with 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average, tend to play more open matches and have slightly better attacking metrics.

The prediction model gives Sassuolo a 45% chance of victory, with a 45% probability of a draw and just 10% for a Parma win, and the advice leans towards “double chance: draw or Sassuolo.” Given Parma’s low-scoring profile and Sassuolo’s greater firepower but similar defensive record, a tight, cagey affair with limited goals looks likely. With no explicit goal forecast provided beyond directional guidance, the safest projection is a narrow edge for the visitors.

Predicted Score: Parma 0-1 Sassuolo

Parma League Form

LLLWW

Sassuolo League Form

LLWDW

Parma Possible Starting Lineup

Astaldi (GK); A. N'Diaye, M. Troilo, L. Valenti, E. Valeri (Defenders); Adrián Bernabé, N. Estévez, O. Sørensen, G. Oristanio (Midfielders); Gabriel Strefezza, Mateo Pellegrino (Forwards).

Parma have frequently used back-three and back-four systems this season, with 3-5-2 their most common shape. A defensive core featuring Mariano Troilo and L. Valenti provides aerial strength and blocking, while Adrián Bernabé and N. Estévez can offer control in midfield. Wide creativity and penetration are likely to come from Gabriel Strefezza and G. Oristanio, with Pellegrino the focal point up front. Given their modest scoring record, Parma’s tactical priority will be compactness and maximising set pieces and counter-attacks.

Sassuolo Possible Starting Lineup

A. Murić (GK); Fali Candé, J. Doig, S. Walukiewicz, J. Idzes (Defenders); N. Matić, K. Thorstvedt, A. Vranckx (Midfielders); A. Laurienté, D. Berardi, A. Pinamonti (Forwards).

Sassuolo have lined up in a 4-3-3 in the vast majority of their matches (35 times), and a similar setup is expected here. Nemanja Matić anchors midfield, with Kristian Thorstvedt offering box-to-box energy and goal threat. Out wide, Armand Laurienté and Domenico Berardi bring goals and creativity, while Andrea Pinamonti leads the line as the central striker. This structure underpins Sassuolo’s superior attacking numbers and should allow them to dominate possession phases against Parma.

Parma Team News

No significant absences reported.

Sassuolo Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Parma:

• None reported.

Sassuolo:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Parma vs Sassuolo

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Sassuolo in the double chance market (draw or away). With Parma given just a 10% win probability against 45% for both the draw and Sassuolo, siding with the visitors not to lose fits the underlying percentages. Odds around 2.48–2.71 are available on the away win itself (e.g. 2.48 Unibet, 2.71 1xBet), but the safer angle is to include the draw.
• Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals. Parma average only 0.7 goals scored per game and have failed to score 16 times, while Sassuolo’s matches are only modestly higher scoring. Recent Serie A H2H clashes (1-1 on 3 January 2026 and 1-1 on 17 January 2021) also support a low-scoring pattern. With match-winner odds clustered around 2.62–2.80 for Parma and 2.48–2.71 for Sassuolo, the market expects a tight contest, which aligns with a goals-under approach.
• Value Tip: Back Sassuolo to score at least once. Their attacking metrics (46 goals, 1.2 per game) and the presence of Pinamonti (9 goals), Berardi (8 goals, 4 assists) and Laurienté (7 goals, 9 assists) suggest they are more likely to find the net. Given away prices up to 2.71 (1xBet) for the win, derivative markets on Sassuolo goals should offer reasonable value compared to Parma’s blunt attack.

How to Watch Parma vs Sassuolo

Broadcast coverage varies by region. General guide:

• Spain: Movistar LaLiga
• UK: Premier Sports
• Australia: beIN Sports
• India: FanCode
• MENA: beIN Sports
• South America: ESPN / Disney+
• Africa: SuperSport

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.