NorthStandCA logo

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Portland Thorns W welcome Chicago Red Stars W to Providence Park on 13 September 2026 in NWSL Women Group Stage action, with the two clubs arriving from opposite ends of the table. Portland are firmly in the playoff picture in 6th place on 38 points after 23 matches, while Chicago sit bottom in 16th with just 16 points and a heavy negative goal difference.

For the hosts, this is about consolidating a top-eight finish and building momentum ahead of the playoffs. Their home form has been a major strength, and facing the league’s weakest defence on paper gives them a prime opportunity to add three more points. For Chicago Red Stars W, every remaining fixture is about pride and damage limitation after conceding 53 goals in 23 games. A trip to one of the toughest venues in the league, against a side that has dominated this matchup historically, is a daunting assignment.

With Portland’s attacking stars like Sophia Smith and P. Tordin in excellent NWSL Women form and Chicago struggling at both ends of the pitch, this clash shapes up as a classic contender vs struggler scenario — but recent head-to-heads show the Red Stars have occasionally sprung surprises at Providence Park.

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Key Stats

  • Portland Thorns W are 6th with 38 points and a +5 goal difference (37 scored, 32 conceded) from 23 matches, while Chicago Red Stars W are 16th with 16 points and a -40 goal difference (13 scored, 53 conceded).
  • In the most recent meeting on 3 May 2026, Portland Thorns W beat Chicago Red Stars W 2-0 away in NWSL Women Group Stage play.
  • Season statistics show Portland averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, compared to Chicago’s 0.6 scored and 2.3 conceded per match.

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 6 vs 16
  • Points: 38 vs 16
  • Goals For: 37 vs 13
  • Goals Against: 32 vs 53
  • Clean Sheets: Portland Thorns W 9; Chicago Red Stars W 3 (tournament statistics)

The standings underline just how far apart these two sides have been across the 23 matches played so far. Portland’s 11 wins and positive goal difference of +5 have them in a strong position for the NWSL Women playoffs, while their home record — 7 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat with 20 goals scored and only 7 conceded — makes Providence Park one of the most difficult away trips in the league.

Chicago, by contrast, have endured a torrid campaign. They have lost 17 of 23 fixtures, scored only 13 goals, and conceded 53, the worst defensive record in the competition. Away from home they have just 1 win and 11 defeats, scoring 3 and conceding 31. Against a Portland side that averages 1.8 goals per home game and concedes only 0.6, the Red Stars will likely spend long spells under pressure.

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Key Matchups

S. Smith vs Chicago Red Stars W defence

Sophia Smith has been one of the standout attackers in NWSL Women this season. For Portland Thorns W she has made 23 appearances, with 20 starts and 1,594 minutes, scoring 10 goals and adding 1 assist. She averages 60 shots with 37 on target, underlining how consistently she tests goalkeepers, and her rating of 7.2 reflects her all-round influence. Smith also contributes 27 key passes and has drawn 26 fouls, showing she is a constant threat between the lines.

She will be up against a Chicago back line that concedes 2.6 goals per game away from home and has allowed 31 goals in 12 road matches. With the Red Stars having kept only 3 clean sheets overall and failing to score 16 times, the pressure on their defence and goalkeeper will be immense. If Smith finds space in and around the box, her finishing and volume of attempts make her a prime candidate to decide the match.

P. Tordin vs Chicago midfield block

P. Tordin has emerged as Portland’s creative heartbeat. Across 23 appearances (22 starts, 1,648 minutes), she has scored 6 goals and provided 7 assists, placing her among the top assist providers in the league. Her 36 key passes and 385 completed passes at 71% accuracy underline her playmaking role, while 33 shots (14 on target) show she is also a direct goal threat.

Chicago’s midfield will need to contain Tordin’s influence between the lines. The Red Stars concede an average of 2.3 goals per match, and their defensive statistics show repeated collapses, especially after half-time. With Portland often lining up in a 4-2-3-1, Tordin’s ability to receive between the lines, combine with O. Moultrie and S. Smith, and slip runners in behind could be decisive against a side that has already suffered heavy defeats like 6-0 and 6-1 this season.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

This has been a high-scoring and often one-sided matchup in recent years, with Portland generally enjoying the upper hand but Chicago occasionally springing an upset, particularly in Oregon.

  • 3 May 2026: Chicago Red Stars W 0-2 Portland Thorns W (NWSL Women)
  • 14 September 2025: Chicago Red Stars W 1-1 Portland Thorns W (NWSL Women)
  • 22 June 2025: Portland Thorns W 1-0 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
  • 14 September 2024: Portland Thorns W 0-1 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
  • 27 April 2024: Chicago Red Stars W 0-2 Portland Thorns W (NWSL Women)

Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction

All indicators point strongly toward a Portland Thorns W victory. The comparison model heavily favours Portland in form (77 vs 23), attack (69 vs 31), defence (74 vs 26) and overall index (77.0 vs 23.0). The Poisson index is even more lopsided at 96 vs 4, highlighting the gulf in underlying numbers. Portland’s recent five-match sample shows 9 goals scored and 7 conceded, while Chicago have shipped 20 goals in their last 5 games, averaging 4 conceded per match.

The win probability block gives Portland a 50% chance of winning, with a 50% chance of a draw and effectively no chance (0%) assigned to a Chicago win. The head-to-head record also leans Portland’s way, including a 2-0 away win earlier in 2026 and several multi-goal victories in recent seasons. Chicago’s away record of 1 win and 11 defeats, coupled with just 3 away goals all season, makes it hard to construct a realistic path to an upset at Providence Park.

Given Chicago’s attacking struggles and Portland’s strong home defensive record (only 7 goals conceded in 11 home matches), this could be a controlled home win rather than a complete rout, especially with bookmakers already pricing Portland as a very short favourite. A solid, professional performance from the Thorns should be enough.

Predicted Score: Portland Thorns W 2-0 Chicago Red Stars W

Portland Thorns W Recent Form

Portland’s recent form in NWSL Women has been largely positive, with a pattern of wins punctuated by the occasional setback. Their current league form string reads LDWWW, indicating one loss followed by a draw and then three straight victories. Across 23 matches they have 11 wins and just 7 defeats, and at home they have been particularly reliable, losing only once and keeping 7 clean sheets. The attack is consistent at 1.6 goals per game, and they have failed to score in only 2 fixtures all season.

Chicago Red Stars W Recent Form

Chicago Red Stars W come into this match in poor shape. Their latest league form string is LLWLL, with four defeats in their last five games. Over the full 23-match slate they have lost 17 times, and their goal difference of -40 is by far the worst in the division. The team has failed to score in 16 matches and averages just 0.6 goals per game, while conceding 2.3. Away from home they have lost 11 of 12, underlining just how fragile they have been on the road.

Portland Thorns W Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Arnold; Defenders: S. Hiatt, M. Müller, J. Perry, R. Reyes; Midfielders: J. Fleming, O. Moultrie, C. Bogere, P. Tordin; Forwards: S. Smith, D. Castellanos.

Portland have a deep and well-balanced squad. At the back, options like S. Hiatt, M. Müller, J. Perry and R. Reyes have contributed to 9 clean sheets in tournament statistics, supported by a midfield that mixes control and aggression through players such as J. Fleming, O. Moultrie and C. Bogere. Further forward, the combination of P. Tordin’s creativity (7 assists, 36 key passes) and S. Smith’s goalscoring (10 goals, 37 shots on target) gives the Thorns multiple avenues to break down a vulnerable Chicago defence. The frequent use of a 4-2-3-1 formation this season (17 matches) suggests a familiar structure that should dominate territory and possession at home.

Chicago Red Stars W Possible Starting Lineup

GK: A. Naeher; Defenders: S. Staab, Leila Ouahabi, A. Farmer, T. Malham; Midfielders: J. Grosso, Maitane López, B. Pinto, B. Franklin; Forwards: M. Swanson, J. Huitema.

Chicago have rotated through several systems this season, most often a 4-2-3-1 but also 4-1-4-1 and 4-3-3, in search of stability. Experienced figures such as A. Naeher in goal and defenders like S. Staab and Leila Ouahabi will be crucial if they are to withstand Portland’s pressure. In attack, names like M. Swanson and J. Huitema offer potential quality, but the team’s overall output of 13 goals in 23 matches and 16 games without scoring shows how difficult it has been to turn possession into chances. Expect Chicago to sit deep, compact the central areas, and look to counter when possible.

Portland Thorns W Team News

No significant absences reported.

Chicago Red Stars W Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Portland Thorns W:

  • None reported.

Chicago Red Stars W:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Portland Thorns W vs Chicago Red Stars W

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

  • Result Tip: Back Portland Thorns W to win. The prediction model gives Portland a 50% chance of victory and 50% for the draw, with 0% allocated to a Chicago win. The head-to-head record and the huge gap in form and goal difference back this up. Across bookmakers, home odds range from 1.17 to 1.24, implying an approximate probability band of 80.6% to 85.5%, making Portland an overwhelming market favourite.
  • Goals Tip: Under 3.5 total goals. Portland average 1.6 goals scored per match and concede 1.4, while Chicago score only 0.6 and concede 2.3. Chicago’s attack is extremely weak, and Portland’s home defence is strong, so a 2-0 or 3-0 type scoreline is plausible. The under/over trends show relatively few very high-scoring games for Portland (only a small share over 3.5), which supports a conservative goals angle. Use the main Match Winner odds range (for context: home 1.17–1.24, draw 5.00–6.20, away 8.38–10.40) to build a goals-related combo if available.
  • Value Tip: Portland Thorns W to win to nil. Portland have 9 clean sheets in tournament statistics and have conceded just 7 goals in 11 home games. Chicago have failed to score in 16 of 23 matches and have only 3 goals away from home all season. Combining Portland’s defensive solidity at Providence Park with Chicago’s chronic scoring issues makes a home win without conceding an attractive higher-price angle. Expect this market to be priced above the straight home win, offering better value than the very short 1.17–1.24 on Portland simply to win.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

Related News