Chicago Red Stars W vs Washington Spirit W Prediction: Key Stats and Tips

Chicago Red Stars W host Washington Spirit W at Martin Stadium on 20 September 2026 in a NWSL Women Group Stage clash that pits one of the league’s strugglers against a genuine title contender. With Chicago rooted to the bottom and Washington pushing at the top end of the table, this matchup has clear stakes at both ends of the standings.

Chicago come into this fixture 16th with just 17 points from 24 matches, a goal difference of -40 and only 14 goals scored all campaign. Survival and damage limitation are the priorities now. Washington Spirit W, by contrast, sit 2nd on 43 points from 24 games, boasting 33 goals scored and a solid +10 goal difference as they chase seeding for the NWSL Women Play Offs: Quarter-finals.

The recent head-to-head history between Chicago Red Stars W and Washington Spirit W has been competitive, with both sides picking up wins and draws over the last few seasons. However, current form, underlying stats and pre-match odds all tilt heavily in favour of Washington, who are widely expected to control proceedings despite playing away from home.

Chicago Red Stars W vs Washington Spirit W Key Stats

• Chicago Red Stars W are 16th with 17 points, scoring just 14 and conceding 54 across 24 league matches.
• The last NWSL Women meeting on 31 August 2025 at Audi Field ended Washington Spirit W 1-1 Chicago Red Stars W.
• Season statistics show Chicago averaging 0.6 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per match, while Washington average 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded over 24 games.

Chicago Red Stars W vs Washington Spirit W — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 16 vs 2
• Points: 17 vs 43
• Goals For: 14 vs 33
• Goals Against: 54 vs 23
• Clean Sheets: Chicago Red Stars W 3; Washington Spirit W 9 (tournament statistics across 24 matches each)

Standings underline the gulf between the sides. Chicago have lost 17 of 24 games, with a -40 goal difference and only 5 wins. Their home record (4 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses, 10 scored, 22 conceded in 11 matches) is slightly better than their away form but still well below league average. They are in a battle to restore pride rather than chase honours.

Washington Spirit W, 2nd in the table, have 13 wins from 24 and one of the league’s most balanced profiles: 33 goals scored, 23 conceded, and a strong away record of 7 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats (18 scored, 10 conceded). With a description line of “Promotion - NWSL Women (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)”, they are firmly in the playoff picture and will see this as a must-win to maintain pressure on the league leaders.

Chicago Red Stars W vs Washington Spirit W Key Matchups

M. Swanson vs T. Rodman

Chicago’s attacking hopes will naturally gravitate towards a high-ceiling forward like M. Swanson, one of the most recognizable names in the Red Stars squad. She will be tasked with stretching a Washington back line that has conceded just 23 times in 24 matches and kept 9 clean sheets in tournament statistics. Swanson’s movement and ability to attack space will be vital if Chicago are to improve on their paltry 0.6 goals per game.

On the other side, Washington’s standout attacking figure is T. Rodman. She has been one of the league’s most complete offensive players in 2026: 8 goals and 4 assists in 24 appearances, starting every match and logging 1,781 minutes. Rodman has taken 56 shots with 24 on target, created 23 key passes from 470 total passes, and drawn 33 fouls. Her blend of dribbling (72 attempts, 20 successful), work rate (217 duels, 102 won) and end product makes her the primary threat Chicago must contain. The contrast is stark: Chicago rely on flashes from Swanson in a low-scoring side, while Washington can build consistently around Rodman’s proven output.

Chicago defensive unit vs Washington midfield (A. Sullivan & supporting cast)

Chicago’s defence has been porous all season, conceding 54 goals at an average of 2.3 per game. They struggle particularly after the break, with a significant share of goals conceded coming between 46–60 minutes and 61–75 minutes. That vulnerability will be tested by Washington’s midfield, where A. Sullivan provides control and balance.

Sullivan has featured in 18 matches (7 starts, 619 minutes), completing 260 passes at an 86% accuracy rate and contributing 10 tackles and 10 interceptions. While she has no goals or assists, her role as a distributor and defensive screen is crucial in enabling the likes of Rodman and Ashley Hatch to operate higher up the pitch. If Chicago cannot disrupt Sullivan’s rhythm, Washington will likely dominate territory and chance creation.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent meetings between Chicago Red Stars W and Washington Spirit W have often been tight, with both sides enjoying wins at home and away. The last five years show a rivalry with frequent goals and several draws.

• 31 August 2025: Washington Spirit W 1-1 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
• 10 May 2025: Chicago Red Stars W 2-3 Washington Spirit W (NWSL Women)
• 20 October 2024: Washington Spirit W 2-0 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL Women)
• 31 July 2024: Washington Spirit W 2-3 Chicago Red Stars W (NWSL - Liga MXF Summer Cup)
• 2 May 2024: Chicago Red Stars W 2-4 Washington Spirit W (NWSL Women)

Chicago Red Stars W vs Washington Spirit W Prediction

All indicators point towards Washington Spirit W having a clear edge. Chicago’s recent form in the standings reads DLLWL, reflecting just one win in their last five league matches and persistent defensive issues. Washington, by contrast, show LWWLD over their last five in the table, and a broader league form string that includes multiple winning streaks.

The prediction model gives Chicago only a 10% chance of victory, with the draw and Washington win each rated at 45%. That effectively frames this as a “double chance: draw or Washington Spirit W” scenario. Washington’s defence is significantly stronger, and their attack averages more than double Chicago’s goals per match. H2H history also leans Washington’s way in recent NWSL Women fixtures, even if Chicago have occasionally sprung an upset.

Predicted Score: Chicago Red Stars W 0-2 Washington Spirit W

Chicago Red Stars W Recent Form

Chicago’s recent form in the standings is DLLWL, underlining a side that struggles to put together results. Across 24 matches they have managed just 5 wins and 2 draws, with 17 defeats. Their attack is blunt, averaging 0.6 goals per game, and they have failed to score in 16 of 24 matches in tournament statistics. Defensively, they concede heavily, especially in the second half, which often turns competitive first halves into heavy losses.

Washington Spirit W Recent Form

Washington’s standings form over the last five reads LWWLD, but the broader pattern is far more positive: 13 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats from 24 games. Their attack is consistent at 1.4 goals per match, and they have failed to score in only 6 of 24 outings. Defensively, they average just 1.0 goal conceded per game and have kept 9 clean sheets in tournament statistics, with a particularly strong record away from home.

Chicago Red Stars W Possible Starting Lineup

GK: A. Naeher or K. Lund; Defenders: Elise Evans, A. Farmer, S. Staab, T. Malham, T. E. Dellarose; Midfielders: Leila Ouahabi, E. Egizii, B. Franklin, A. Gasper, M. Hayashi, Maitane López, B. Pinto; Forwards: J. Grosso, J. Bike, S. Charley, R. Gareis, Nádia Gomes, J. Huitema, M. Alozie, M. Swanson, Jameese Joseph, M. Johnson.

Without confirmed lineups, Chicago are likely to lean on experience at the back with A. Naeher in goal and S. Staab as a defensive anchor. In attack, players like M. Swanson and J. Huitema offer the most upside, supported by creative midfielders such as B. Pinto and Leila Ouahabi. Tactical flexibility is evident from their season formations, with frequent use of 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3, but given their defensive record, a more conservative shape is probable.

Washington Spirit W Possible Starting Lineup

GK: K. Collins or S. MacIver; Defenders: G. Carle, L. Di Guglielmo, M. Haugen, P. Metayer, E. Morgan, T. McKeown, É. Tsé, Kate Wiesner; Midfielders: D. Abiodun, M. Bethi, Hal Hershfelt, M. Ngock, L. Santos, M. Skurcenski, A. Sullivan; Forwards: S. Cantore, E. Gaines-Ramos, Ashley Hatch, R. Kouassi, C. Martinez Ovando, G. Monday, T. Rodman, Tamara Bolt.

Washington have been structurally consistent, using 4-2-3-1 in 14 matches this season. Expect a similar setup here, with A. Sullivan anchoring midfield, L. Santos offering creativity, and T. Rodman plus Ashley Hatch leading the line. Their depth in wide and central attacking areas allows them to rotate without losing quality, which is key in maintaining their strong away record.

Chicago Red Stars W Team News

No significant absences reported.

Washington Spirit W Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Chicago Red Stars W:

• None reported.

Washington Spirit W:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Chicago Red Stars W vs Washington Spirit W

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Washington Spirit W to win. They are 2nd with 43 points versus Chicago’s 16th place and 17 points, and the prediction probabilities give Chicago just a 10% chance of victory against 45% each for draw and away win. Across bookmakers, away odds range from 1.22 to 1.30, implying roughly a 76.9%–82.0% chance of a Washington victory, making them a strong favourite.
• Goals Tip: Washington Spirit W to win to nil or under 3.5 total goals. Chicago average only 0.6 goals scored per game and have failed to score in 16 of 24 matches, while Washington concede just 1.0 per match and have 9 clean sheets. With away win odds in the 1.22–1.30 range and Chicago’s attack struggling, combining a Washington result with a low-to-moderate goal line offers a sensible angle if such a market is available around longer than 1.30.
• Value Tip: T. Rodman to score anytime. She has 8 goals and 4 assists in 24 appearances, leads Washington in shots (56 total, 24 on target), and is central to their attacking scheme. While specific player odds are not listed here, markets often underestimate midfielders/attackers listed as “Midfielder” despite forward-like output; given Washington’s strong implied win probability (around 77–82%), a Rodman anytime scorer price above the main match winner odds would represent attractive value.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.