Liverpool's Defence Under Pressure as Atlético Return to Anfield
The last time Atlético Madrid walked into Anfield on a European night, they came from two goals down and left with a point. Go back a little further to 2019/20 and they walked out with a 3-2 win. This is not a team that spooks easily under the lights.
Liverpool, by contrast, are still trying to work out exactly what they are under Andoni Iraola.
Liverpool open, Atlético circling
The numbers tell the story before the ball is even kicked. Four goals conceded in Liverpool’s first two league games, both of them draws. The clean sheet at Ipswich at the weekend steadied the mood, but the back line still feels makeshift rather than menacing.
Ronald Araújo has been shunted across to right-back with Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni out. The unit is learning on the job as the season rolls forward. That uncertainty is exactly the kind of scent Diego Simeone’s teams love.
Atlético arrive with a clear memory of how to hurt Liverpool here. They’ve already won 3-2 at Anfield in that famous 2019/20 tie, and last season they dug themselves out of a 2-0 hole on this ground to take a draw. The idea that they simply turn up and roll over does not fit the evidence.
The market currently gives Atlético a 46.5% implied chance of avoiding defeat. For a side that thrives in controlled chaos and knows this stadium well, that feels light. They have never won a league-phase game against English opposition, but they don’t have to. A draw is enough for the “Double Chance” angle to land.
Bet 1: Draw or Atlético (Double Chance) @ 23/20 with Sky Bet
Isak sharp, and shooting
At the other end, Liverpool have a striker who suddenly looks like he belongs at this level.
Alexander Isak has three goals in three Premier League games this season. At Ipswich on Friday night he ripped through the hosts with two goals in nine minutes, part of a hat-trick of strikes all laid on by Cody Gakpo. The partnership clicked, and you could feel the lift around him.
Compare that with last season: four goals in 22 appearances. He looks fitter, looser, more decisive now. The hesitation that marked his debut campaign at Anfield has gone.
Atlético’s defence does not arrive in perfect order either. They were beaten 3-0 at Athletic Bilbao in their last league outing, their back line stretched and exposed. That fragility meets a striker in rhythm.
The one red flag for Isak is his Champions League record: one goal in 13 appearances. It lingers in the background, a reminder that he still has something to prove on this stage. Even so, the implied 47.6% chance of him scoring at any time feels on the low side given his current form and the state of Atlético’s back line.
Bet 2: Alexander Isak anytime goalscorer @ 11/10 with Sky Bet
Creativity the missing piece for Iraola
For all Liverpool’s attacking names, chance creation remains the nagging concern.
They sit 19th in the Premier League for big chances created: just four in three matches. Brighton, by comparison, have carved out 15 in the same span. That is a stark gap for a club built on front-foot football.
The issue is not just personnel, it’s structure. Pablo Barrios and Morten Hjulmand are set to patrol the midfield spaces where Florian Wirtz loves to drift and receive. Behind them, Jan Oblak is still the calm, authoritative figure Atlético lean on when the game tightens.
Simeone will not be tempted into a shootout. He will happily drag this into a slow, narrow contest, the kind that makes Anfield restless and suits his side’s discipline. Atlético have scored seven in their last four league games, and with Julian Alvarez expected to return to the attack, they still carry a clear threat on the break and in transition.
Even with that attacking edge, this has all the ingredients of a tight European night. The under 2.5 goals line sits at an implied 42.2% probability, and given Liverpool’s creative struggles and Atlético’s appetite for control, that looks a generous entry point.
Bet 3: Under 2.5 goals @ 11/8 with Sky Bet
Form, lineups and a familiar script
Liverpool have taken five points from their first three league games. The two 2-2 draws were followed by that 2-0 win at Ipswich, where Isak’s brace at Portman Road eased some of the early-season anxiety. The Swedish forward, after an injury-hit first year at Anfield, finally looks like the spearhead Iraola wanted.
The squad is still patchy. Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni remain unavailable, while Federico Chiesa and Wataru Endo have not been registered for Champions League action. The options are there, but not all of them are usable.
Atlético come in off the back of that bruising 3-0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao, yet they still sit sixth in La Liga with seven points from four games. One bad afternoon has not derailed their start.
Simeone is expected to hand Julian Alvarez his first start of the season, a significant boost in the final third. Cristian Romero is pushing for his first start since joining the club, adding bite to the back line. Alexander Sorloth is out with a thigh problem and Arnau Ortiz is suspended, trimming the options but not the intent. The club also expects Alvarez to stay at least until the January window, so this could be the first real glimpse of the attack they plan to build around him.
Probable lineups
Liverpool (expected): Alisson; Kerkez, Araújo, Jacquet, van Dijk; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, Barcola; Wirtz, Gakpo; Isak
Atlético Madrid (expected): Oblak; Llorente, Romero, Hancko, Grimaldo; Giuliano Simeone, Barrios, Hjulmand, Lookman; Baena; Álvarez
Prediction: another knife-edge night
Everything points to another tight, tense meeting.
Liverpool’s defence is still learning its shape. Atlético know how to live off those moments of uncertainty. Isak is in form, Alvarez is back, and both sides have enough individual quality to punish a single mistake.
The call is for a 1-1 draw: Isak to strike for Liverpool, Alvarez to mark his first start of the season with a goal of his own.
If that script holds, Anfield will not just be looking at a frustrating night. It will be looking at a very clear early verdict on what Iraola’s Liverpool really are in Europe this season.
