Crystal Palace vs Everton: Premier League Match Preview

Crystal Palace host Everton at Selhurst Park in Premier League action on 10 May 2026, with the home side still looking over their shoulder in 15th on 43 points after 34 games, while Everton arrive safer in mid-table in 10th with 48 points from 35 matches. The market has priced this as an almost perfectly balanced contest: best home odds are around 2.91, away around 2.69, and the draw near 3.35, reflecting a genuine pick’em on the 1X2 line.

Form-wise, both sides show identical recent overall form percentages (50% vs 50% in the prediction comparison), but the underlying profiles differ. Crystal Palace’s league record is 11-10-13 with a negative goal difference (36 scored, 42 conceded). At Selhurst Park they are cautious: 4-8-5 at home, scoring only 16 and conceding 19. Their last-five attacking index is just 14%, with 3 goals scored (0.6 per game) and 7 conceded (1.4 per game), underlining a blunt attack but reasonably solid defensive base (defence index 67%).

Everton, by contrast, look more balanced and slightly stronger across the pitch. Their league record stands at 13-9-13 with 44 scored and 44 conceded. Away from home they are a respectable 7-4-6, scoring 19 and conceding 20. In the last five, they have hit 10 goals (2.0 per game) but also allowed 9 (1.8 per game), which fits their higher attacking index (48%) but only moderate defensive figure (57%). The model’s comparison gives Everton a clear edge in attack (77% vs 23%), while Palace shade defence (56% vs 44%).

The goal distribution indicators also support a marginal Everton edge. Palace average 1.1 goals for and 1.2 against per match; Everton average 1.3 for and 1.3 against. Everton’s goals skew late (32.56% between 76–90 minutes), suggesting they stay dangerous deep into games, whereas Palace’s main scoring window is 31–45 minutes. Both teams have relatively low over 2.5 profiles (Everton over 2.5 in 5 of 35; Palace in 3 of 34), pointing towards a tight, lower-scoring contest.

Head-to-Head Data

Head-to-head data, excluding friendlies, is strongly tilted towards Everton and is explicitly captured in the prediction model’s 7% vs 93% h2h comparison. In the Premier League at Hill Dickinson Stadium on 5 October 2025, Everton beat Crystal Palace 2-1 after trailing 0-1 at half-time. At Selhurst Park on 15 February 2025 in the Premier League, Everton again won 2-1. On 28 September 2024 at Goodison Park in the Premier League, Everton won 2-1. On 19 February 2024 at Goodison Park in the Premier League, the sides drew 1-1. In cup play, the pattern is similar: in the FA Cup 3rd Round Replay on 17 January 2024 at Goodison Park, Everton won 1-0, after a 0-0 draw in the FA Cup at Selhurst Park on 4 January 2024. Earlier Premier League meetings at Selhurst Park on 11 November 2023 ended 3-2 to Everton, at Selhurst Park on 22 April 2023 ended 0-0, while at Goodison Park on 22 October 2022 Everton won 3-0 and on 19 May 2022 they won 3-2. This consistent ability to take points, home and away, is a key driver of the model’s Everton-favoured h2h metric.

Prediction Model

The official prediction model rates Everton and the draw equally at 45% each, with Palace only 10%. It explicitly advises “Double chance : draw or Everton” and flags Everton as the predicted “winner” in the sense of win-or-draw security. The Poisson-based distribution in the comparison (42% Palace, 58% Everton) and the total quality index (35.2% vs 64.8%) both lean towards the away side avoiding defeat.

Betting Perspective

From a betting perspective, that aligns neatly with the odds. With away prices clustered around 2.60–2.70 and Palace around 2.70–2.90, the bookmakers are close to a coin flip, while the model clearly tilts to Everton on the double-chance. Given Palace’s low home scoring rate, Everton’s stronger attack, and the repeated recent success Everton have had in this matchup, the most data-consistent angle is:

• Main pick: Everton or Draw (Double Chance), in line with the official advice.
• Correct-score lean: a tight game, most plausibly 1-1 or a narrow 2-1 Everton win, consistent with the low over-2.5 tendencies and recent h2h scorelines.