Cape Verde Upsets Uruguay: World Cup Predictions Shake Up
Cape Verde keep tearing up the script. After holding Spain, they have now stood firm against Uruguay too, another result that shakes up the World Cup and exposes how little anyone truly knows in this tournament.
Not everyone was blindsided this time. When Cape Verde faced Spain, an extraordinary 99.65% of players in the BBC’s new predictor game backed them to lose. Against Uruguay, that figure dropped to 83%. Still heavily against them, still wrong – but at least a few more people saw the upset coming.
The predictor game has become its own subplot to this World Cup. Users, BBC Sport predictions expert Chris Sutton and AI are all locked in a quiet contest, each round of group fixtures a fresh test of judgement.
This time, the crowd won.
Sutton improved in the second batch of 24 group games, correctly calling 14 results after managing 12 in the opening round. AI nudged ahead too, climbing from 13 to 15 correct outcomes. Then the users blew past them both, leaping from 13 to 18 out of 24. Cape Verde may be the story on the pitch, but off it, the wisdom of the crowd is starting to look formidable.
Now comes the final sweep of group matches, where prediction turns into high-wire act. Scotland face Brazil. England meet Panama. Qualification hopes, Golden Boot races, and reputations are all in play.
Sutton has committed to calling every one of the 104 games at this World Cup, and he has already nailed his colours to the mast by predicting how all 12 groups will finish. The AI, powered by Microsoft Copilot Chat, has been given a simple instruction – “predict the results of the second round of World Cup group games” – and turned loose. The humans are choosing, the machine is calculating, and the tournament keeps making fools of them all.
Mexico rotation, Czech Republic desperation
Mexico City. Thursday, 25 June. 02:00 BST. Estadio Azteca under the lights and thin air.
Mexico are already safely through as group winners. Whatever happens here, they are in the last 32. That reality shapes everything. Rotation is coming. Key players are likely to be rested, legs protected, minutes managed.
For the Czech Republic, it is the opposite. They need a win just to have a chance of survival. No margin for error, no room for caution.
Mexico, though, are back in their fortress. Sutton watched them dismantle South Africa there, fuelled by noise, colour and altitude. As his 5 live commentary partner Alistair Bruce-Ball put it, this is about pride as much as progress. The conditions won’t favour the Czechs, and Mexico know it.
Still, Sutton goes against the grain of home advantage and rotation logic. His call: Mexico 0-1 Czech Republic. The AI sees goals, and a different story – Mexico 1-2 Czech Republic – but it still backs the Europeans to snatch it.
Messi wrapped in cotton wool
Dallas. Sunday, 28 June. 03:00.
Argentina have already wrapped up their group. That luxury brings a big decision, and Sutton believes Lionel Messi will be the one to sit this one out.
Rest now, trophies later. It is a brutal trade-off for a player chasing both the Golden Boot and further distance at the top of the World Cup all-time scoring charts. His fans will not like it. They want every minute, every free-kick, every penalty. But tournaments are won by hard choices, not sentiment.
Jordan stand in front of them, needing to find a way to live with Argentina’s firepower. Sutton cannot see it. With or without Messi, he expects a gulf in class.
His prediction is emphatic: Jordan 0-3 Argentina. The AI matches him exactly. No debate, no nuance. Just a heavyweight rolling on.
Ronaldo goals, but Colombia resistance
Miami. Sunday, 28 June. 00:30.
This one matters for the top of the group. Portugal need a win to finish first. The stakes are clear, and so is the pressure.
Sutton watched Portugal’s big win over Uzbekistan last time out, a scoreline that flattered but still underlined their attacking threat. Colombia, though, represent a different level of resistance. Stronger, sharper, more dangerous.
He sees this as the moment the group tightens. A setback, not a collapse. Sutton goes for a draw, calling it Portugal 2-2 Colombia. In his script, Cristiano Ronaldo scores both Portuguese goals yet still walks off frustrated, the draw not enough to secure top spot. The joke, delivered with a familiar wink, is that Ronaldo will simply carry on scoring until the 2040 World Cup.
The AI refuses to share the doubt. Its prediction: Portugal 1-2 Colombia. Same belief in Colombian resilience, less faith in Portugal’s ability to bend the game to their will.
Tuchel, tweaks and Kane’s response
New York. Saturday, 27 June. 22:00.
Thomas Tuchel’s England were lauded for his half-time team talk against Croatia, a turnaround that fed the myth of the master tactician. Against Ghana, the same dressing-room intervention fizzled. The words didn’t land, the performance didn’t lift.
Now comes Panama, and the room for error shrinks. England need to win. Not edge it. Win it properly.
Sutton expects changes, but not a full reset. Harry Kane starts. That is non-negotiable. Around him, though, the pieces may shift. Bukayo Saka and Marcus Rashford are tipped to come in on the wings, adding pace and direct running.
Sutton wants Saka from the first whistle, ahead of Noni Madueke. At left-back, he argues Nico O’Reilly must start instead of Djed Spence, backing O’Reilly as the more complete footballer. It is a call for balance as much as flair.
Panama have been stubborn so far, losing 1-0 in both their games. Organised, awkward, hard to break. Sutton doesn’t see that pattern holding. He expects England to open up, to find rhythm and ruthlessness. Kane, who missed a huge late chance against Ghana, is tipped to respond the way elite strikers usually do – by scoring.
His verdict is clear: Panama 0-3 England. The AI stands alongside him again, also going 0-3.
Cape Verde have already shown how quickly this World Cup can tear up expectations. The users have surged past expert and AI in the prediction stakes. Now the final round of group games waits, with Scotland staring at Brazil, England chasing control, and a predictor game suddenly feeling like a test of nerve as much as knowledge.
