Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Atalanta welcome Bologna to the New Balance Arena in Bergamo on 31 August 2026 for their second outing of the new Serie A campaign. The hosts started strongly and will look to turn early momentum into a sustained push towards the European places, while Bologna arrive under mild pressure after opening with a defeat.

Atalanta sit 6th after matchday one with 3 points and a +1 goal difference, having won their only game 2-1. Bologna, by contrast, are 16th with 0 points and a -1 goal difference after a 0-1 home loss. With the table still compressed, this fixture already feels important for both sides’ ambitions: Atalanta to consolidate a top-six challenge, Bologna to avoid being dragged into an early relegation scrap.

Recent Atalanta vs Bologna matches in Serie A have often been tight and tactical, and the head-to-head record across league and Coppa Italia suggests very little between them. That balance, combined with Atalanta’s attacking quality and Bologna’s physical midfield, should make this a key game for early-season betting angles and predictions.

Atalanta vs Bologna Key Stats

• Atalanta have 3 points from 1 match (2 goals scored, 1 conceded), while Bologna have 0 points from 1 match (0 scored, 1 conceded).
• The last five competitive meetings in Bergamo show three Atalanta home defeats (0-1 in May 2026, 0-1 in Coppa Italia February 2025, 0-2 in April 2023) and two Atalanta wins (2-0 in April 2025, 2-1 in March 2024) against Bologna.
• In 2026 Serie A statistics so far, Atalanta average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match; Bologna average 0.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, and have failed to score in their only game.

Atalanta vs Bologna — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 6 vs 16
• Points: 3 vs 0
• Goals For: 2 vs 0
• Goals Against: 1 vs 1
• Clean Sheets: 0 vs 0

After one round of Serie A fixtures in 2026, Atalanta are already inside the top six thanks to a 2-1 home win. They have started with a positive goal difference and have immediately shown attacking threat at the New Balance Arena, where they have historically been strong under pressure.

Bologna’s opening 0-1 defeat leaves them in the lower half at 16th. They are yet to score and have already failed to find the net in their only match, a worrying early sign given that their goals-for column was a concern in previous campaigns as well. With both sides having played just once, the numbers are small-sample, but they underline Atalanta’s early edge in both points and attacking output.

Atalanta vs Bologna Key Matchups

G. Raspadori vs N. Cambiaghi

Giacomo Raspadori has made an immediate impact for Atalanta. In his first 2026 Serie A appearance he started, played 82 minutes and scored 1 goal. His attacking efficiency stands out: 1 shot, 1 on target, 1 goal, plus 17 passes at an impressive 94% accuracy. He also contributed defensively with 3 tackles and 2 interceptions and won 6 of 8 duels, underlining his all-round influence in the final third and in the press.

On the Bologna side, Nicolò Cambiaghi has been one of the most active players in their midfield. In his single league appearance he played 60 minutes, registering 1 shot, 13 passes with 84% accuracy, 4 tackles and 1 interception. He was heavily involved in duels (16 total, 9 won) and drew 4 fouls while committing 4, picking up 1 yellow card. His energy and willingness to engage physically will be crucial in trying to disrupt Raspadori between the lines and limit Atalanta’s link play.

N. Krstović vs O. El Azzouzi

Nikola Krstović has also started the season brightly for Atalanta as an impact attacker. Across 30 minutes from the bench he scored 1 goal from 3 shots (2 on target), added 11 passes at 81% accuracy and produced 1 key pass. His ability to change games late on with direct running and finishing makes him a major threat against tiring defences, particularly if Atalanta need a goal in the second half.

Oussama El Azzouzi is one of Bologna’s central pillars. In his 79 minutes in the opener he completed 54 passes at 94% accuracy, delivered 1 key pass and contributed defensively with 1 tackle, 1 block and 1 interception. He also won 3 of 5 duels and drew 2 fouls. His role will be to shield the back four and cut passing lanes into Atalanta’s forwards like Krstović; if he can control the central zone, Bologna’s chances of slowing Atalanta’s attack improve significantly.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

The recent Atalanta vs Bologna head-to-head has been remarkably balanced, with both sides winning key games in Serie A and Coppa Italia. Matches are often tight, with several 1-0 and 2-1 scorelines highlighting how small details decide this fixture.

• 17 May 2026: Atalanta 0-1 Bologna (Serie A)
• 7 January 2026: Bologna 0-2 Atalanta (Serie A)
• 13 April 2025: Atalanta 2-0 Bologna (Serie A)
• 4 February 2025: Atalanta 0-1 Bologna (Coppa Italia)
• 28 September 2024: Bologna 1-1 Atalanta (Serie A)

Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction

Stats suggest a cautious but Atalanta-favoured matchup. The prediction model gives Atalanta a 45% chance of victory, with a 45% probability of a draw and only 10% for a Bologna win. That aligns with the early-season form: Atalanta have already scored twice and won, while Bologna have yet to score and have already failed to find the net at home.

Atalanta’s attacking structure looks promising, with Raspadori and Krstović both on the scoresheet and supported by a creative midfield led by Gianluca Gaetano, who already has 1 assist and 68 completed passes at 92% accuracy. Bologna’s defensive numbers are not disastrous (just 1 goal conceded), but their lack of cutting edge in front of goal is a concern, especially away from home in Bergamo.

Given the head-to-head history of low-scoring, tight games and the prediction advice leaning towards Atalanta combined with a relatively low total goals line, this looks like a contest where the hosts edge it without a goal glut.

Predicted Score: Atalanta 2-1 Bologna

Atalanta Recent Form

Atalanta’s recent form in Serie A is positive. They have started the 2026 campaign with a home win, scoring twice and conceding once. Their last-five record in the league context shows strong attacking metrics and a solid defensive base, with no failures to score so far and an early indication that their 4-3-3 setup is functioning well.

Bologna Recent Form

Bologna’s recent form is more concerning. They opened the new Serie A season with a 0-1 home defeat, failing to score and struggling to create clear chances. Their last-five snapshot shows no wins and a lack of attacking output, with one failure to score already recorded and an average of 0.0 goals per game in the current campaign.

Atalanta Possible Starting Lineup

With no confirmed lineup data for this specific fixture, the likely core of Atalanta’s squad will be drawn from their current group: GK options such as M. Carnesecchi and M. Sportiello; defenders including M. Bakker, I. Hien, G. Scalvini, S. Kolašinac, O. Kossounou, D. Zappacosta and R. Bellanova; midfielders like Éderson, G. Gaetano, Mario Pasalic, L. Samardžić, M. de Roon and I. Sulemana; and forwards C. De Ketelaere, G. Raspadori, G. Scamacca, N. Krstović, K. Sulemana and N. Zalewski.

Atalanta have used a 4-3-3 shape in their only 2026 league match, and that is likely to continue. Gaetano’s passing and work rate in midfield (68 passes, 92% accuracy, 4 tackles) provide balance, while Raspadori and Krstović offer goal threat and movement up front. The depth in attack means Atalanta can change games from the bench, an important factor if the match remains tight into the second half.

Bologna Possible Starting Lineup

Bologna’s squad options include goalkeepers Ł. Skorupski and several young backups; defenders such as N. Casale, Juan Miranda, T. Heggem, E. Holm, N. Zortea and M. Vitík; midfielders O. El Azzouzi, L. Ferguson, N. Moro, T. Pobega, N. Cambiaghi, J. Odgaard and M. Amondarain; and attackers F. Bernardeschi, A. Dovbyk, R. Piccoli and J. Rowe.

They have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 in their only 2026 Serie A match. El Azzouzi’s control in midfield and Cambiaghi’s energy between the lines are key, while the likes of Bernardeschi and Dovbyk provide quality in the final third. However, with a failure to score already on the board and no clean sheets, Bologna must tighten both their structure in front of the back four and their efficiency in attack to take something from Bergamo.

Atalanta Team News

No significant absences reported.

Bologna Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Atalanta:

• None reported.

Bologna:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Atalanta vs Bologna

Exactly 3 distinct betting angles stand out for this Serie A clash:

• Result Tip: Atalanta to win. The prediction model gives Atalanta a 45% chance of victory versus only 10% for Bologna, with Atalanta also holding the early edge in form and attacking stats. Market odds on the home win range roughly from 1.80 to 1.92, implying an approximate probability band of 52.1% to 55.6%, which is consistent with Atalanta being rightful favourites at the New Balance Arena.
• Goals Tip: Under 3.5 total goals. The advisory line already points towards Atalanta combined with a lower goals total, and both teams’ 2026 stats show modest scoring (Atalanta averaging 2.0 for and 1.0 against; Bologna 0.0 for and 1.0 against). Recent head-to-head meetings in Bergamo have often finished 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1, supporting a bet on a relatively tight scoreline rather than a high-scoring shootout.
• Value Tip: Atalanta win in a one-goal margin (for example 1-0 or 2-1) as a correct-score or winning-margin angle. Raspadori and Krstović have both scored already, giving Atalanta multiple match-winners, but Bologna’s defensive structure has not collapsed (only 1 goal conceded). With the draw also priced attractively around 3.50–3.80 (implied roughly 26.3% to 28.6%), backing a narrow Atalanta victory can offer better value than the straight home win, reflecting the tight historical nature of this fixture.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.