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Sunderland vs Chelsea Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Sunderland round off their Premier League campaign with a glamour fixture against Chelsea at the Stadium of Light, with both sides still jostling for final positions in the top half. Under the watch of referee C. Kavanagh, this Regular Season - 38 clash in England’s top flight offers Sunderland the chance to sign off in front of their own fans by upsetting a side currently sitting in the European places.

Heading into this final day, Sunderland are 10th on 51 points, while Chelsea occupy 8th with 52 points and a description line confirming they are in the “Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)” zone. That one-point gap underlines how tight the mid-table battle has been and why this match carries real weight for both clubs’ final standings.

For Sunderland, a win could potentially propel them closer to the European-chasing pack and cap a solid return with a positive result against a traditional heavyweight. Chelsea, meanwhile, will be keen to protect – and possibly strengthen – their grip on a European qualification berth, making this a high-stakes encounter despite the season’s finish line being in sight.

Sunderland vs Chelsea Key Stats

  • Sunderland sit 10th with 51 points from 37 matches, scoring 40 and conceding 47 in the league.
  • Chelsea have won four of the last five Premier League meetings listed, including a 3-1 home victory on 19 December 2015 and a 1-0 away win at the Stadium of Light on 14 December 2016.
  • Chelsea average 1.5 goals per league game this season (57 scored in 37), while Sunderland average 1.1 (40 in 37), highlighting the visitors’ stronger attacking output.

Sunderland vs Chelsea — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 10 vs 8
  • Points: 51 vs 52
  • Goals For: 40 vs 57
  • Goals Against: 47 vs 50
  • Clean Sheets: Sunderland 11 vs Chelsea 9

The season record shows two teams separated by just one point but built in very different ways. Sunderland’s 40 goals for and 47 against give them a negative goal difference of -7, suggesting a side that often keeps games tight but can struggle to outscore opponents. Chelsea, by contrast, boast 57 goals for and 50 against, a positive goal difference of +7 that reflects a more expansive, higher-variance approach.

Sunderland’s 13 wins, 12 draws and 12 defeats from 37 matches underline their mid-table solidity, while Chelsea’s 14 wins, 10 draws and 13 losses show a slightly higher ceiling but also inconsistency. At home, Sunderland have been strong with 8 wins and only 4 defeats from 18, conceding just 19 goals. Chelsea, however, travel well: 7 away wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats, with 31 goals scored on the road. The numbers back the idea of an evenly poised contest where Chelsea’s extra attacking punch is balanced by Sunderland’s home resilience and superior clean-sheet record.

Sunderland vs Chelsea Key Matchups

E. Le Fée vs João Pedro

Enzo Le Fée has been one of Sunderland’s most influential creative forces. The midfielder has 5 goals and 6 assists in 35 league appearances, with 1,073 completed passes at 81% accuracy and 49 key passes. His 85 tackles and 27 interceptions highlight how much work he does out of possession as well, making him central to both Sunderland’s build-up and their defensive structure.

João Pedro is Chelsea’s leading attacking threat. Across 34 appearances, he has scored 15 goals and provided 5 assists, underpinned by 50 shots (28 on target). His 677 passes with 29 key passes and 71 dribble attempts (37 successful) show a forward who not only finishes moves but also creates and carries the ball. With 54 fouls drawn, he is adept at winning set-pieces in dangerous areas. The battle between Le Fée’s control in midfield and João Pedro’s cutting edge in the final third could define the rhythm and outcome of this match.

G. Xhaka vs E. Fernández

Granit Xhaka offers Sunderland experience and distribution from the middle of the park. In 33 league appearances, he has 1 goal and 6 assists, with 1,755 passes at 83% accuracy and 34 key passes. Defensively, 50 tackles, 20 blocks and 29 interceptions mark him out as a key shield in front of the back line, while his 7 yellow cards underline the combative edge he brings.

Enzo Fernández is one of Chelsea’s all-round engines. He has 10 goals and 4 assists in 35 appearances, a remarkable return for a midfielder. With 1,983 passes at 86% accuracy and 67 key passes, he is a major creative hub. His defensive numbers – 52 tackles and 21 interceptions – plus 9 yellow cards show his dual role in winning and using the ball. The duel between Xhaka and Fernández will be crucial in determining which side controls territory and tempo.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

The recent head-to-head record between Sunderland and Chelsea is rich and competitive, spanning league and cup. Across the most recent clashes listed, Chelsea have generally had the upper hand, but Sunderland have produced notable upsets both home and away.

  • 25 October 2025: Chelsea 1-2 Sunderland (Premier League)
  • 21 May 2017: Chelsea 5-1 Sunderland (Premier League)
  • 14 December 2016: Sunderland 0-1 Chelsea (Premier League)
  • 7 May 2016: Sunderland 3-2 Chelsea (Premier League)
  • 19 December 2015: Chelsea 3-1 Sunderland (Premier League)

Sunderland vs Chelsea Prediction

Analysis points to a finely balanced contest. Sunderland’s league form string of WDDLL suggests a recent dip, while Chelsea’s WDLLL indicates their own late-season wobble. However, the broader statistical comparison gives Chelsea a slight edge: they score more frequently, average 1.5 goals per game to Sunderland’s 1.1, and the predictive metrics marginally favour the visitors, with Chelsea and the draw each rated at 45% compared to just 10% for a home win.

Sunderland’s 11 clean sheets and solid home record mean this is unlikely to be a walkover for Chelsea, especially with the hosts keen to end on a high at the Stadium of Light. But Chelsea’s superior attacking weapons, led by João Pedro and Enzo Fernández, and their strong away scoring record (31 goals in 18 away games) suggest they are more likely to avoid defeat than not. Expect a tight, tactical game where Chelsea’s quality in the final third just about tells.

Predicted Score: Sunderland 1-2 Chelsea

Sunderland League Form

WDDLL

Chelsea League Form

WDLLL

Sunderland Possible Starting Lineup

M. Ellborg; O. Alderete, D. Ballard, D. Cirkin, Reinildo; G. Xhaka, E. Le Fée, L. O'Nien; T. Hume, B. Brobbey, W. Isidor.

Sunderland have frequently used a 4-2-3-1 structure this season, and the personnel available point towards a similar shape here. The presence of ball-playing defenders like D. Ballard and Reinildo, combined with the passing range of G. Xhaka and E. Le Fée, should allow Sunderland to build from the back. Wide options such as T. Hume and W. Isidor, plus a focal point like B. Brobbey, give them outlets in transition. With no confirmed absences listed, the coach has flexibility to adjust between a more cautious double pivot or a slightly more adventurous midfield three.

Chelsea Possible Starting Lineup

Robert Sánchez; T. Chalobah, B. Badiashile, Marc Cucurella, R. James; M. Caicedo, E. Fernández; C. Palmer, Pedro Neto, A. Garnacho; João Pedro.

Chelsea have leaned heavily on a 4-2-3-1 this season, and their squad composition supports that system. Robert Sánchez provides a commanding presence in goal, while T. Chalobah and B. Badiashile can anchor the defence, with Marc Cucurella offering width from the left. In midfield, M. Caicedo and E. Fernández combine ball-winning and progressive passing, setting the platform for an attacking line featuring C. Palmer, Pedro Neto or A. Garnacho supporting João Pedro. The blend of creativity, pressing and direct running makes Chelsea dangerous, especially on the counter.

Sunderland Team News

No significant absences reported.

Chelsea Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Sunderland:

  • None reported.

Chelsea:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Sunderland vs Chelsea

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

  • Result Tip: Back Chelsea in the Draw No Bet or double-chance market. Predictive metrics rate Chelsea and the draw at 45% each, with only 10% for Sunderland, and Chelsea’s stronger attacking numbers support an away-favoured angle. For the straight Match Winner market, Chelsea are around 2.00 with Bet365 and Betfair, and 2.05 with 1xBet, offering a reasonable price given their marginal overall edge.
  • Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. Sunderland average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, while Chelsea average 1.5 scored and 1.4 conceded. Recent head-to-head meetings have often produced multiple goals, including 2-1, 5-1, 3-2 and 3-1 scorelines. With both defences conceding around or above one goal per match, a goals-based angle above the very low lines looks well supported, though specific over/under odds are not listed in the available markets.
  • Value Tip: João Pedro to score anytime (where available) or a Chelsea win in a game with over 1.5 goals as a builder. João Pedro’s 15 goals and 5 assists in 34 appearances underline his central role in Chelsea’s attack, and his high shot volume and dribbling output make him a constant threat. For those sticking strictly to the Match Winner market, the away price peaks at 2.05 with 1xBet, which looks a touch of value given Chelsea’s superior scoring record and the prediction leaning towards “Win or draw” for the visitors.

How to Watch Sunderland vs Chelsea

Broadcast coverage varies by region. General guide:

  • Spain: Movistar LaLiga
  • UK: Premier Sports
  • Australia: beIN Sports
  • India: FanCode
  • MENA: beIN Sports
  • South America: ESPN / Disney+
  • Africa: SuperSport

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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