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Burnley vs Wolves Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Burnley and Wolves meet at Turf Moor on 24 May 2026 in a final-day Premier League clash that decides who finishes bottom of the table. With both clubs already in the relegation zone, this is about pride, momentum for life in the Championship, and answering the key question many fans are asking: who has the edge in this Burnley vs Wolves prediction?

The game takes place at Turf Moor in Burnley, with A. Kitchen appointed as referee. Burnley sit 19th on 21 points, Wolves 20th on 19 points after 37 matches. A home win would confirm Burnley avoid the wooden spoon; anything else opens the door for Wolves to climb off the foot. For punters studying Burnley vs Wolves betting tips, the combination of poor league form and tight standings makes this a volatile, high-stakes encounter.

Stats suggest a meeting of two of the division’s weakest attacks and leakiest defences, but the head-to-head record and recent trends offer angles for those searching how to bet on Burnley vs Wolves. With the visitors favoured on the double-chance market and the hosts slightly shorter in the match-winner odds, there is genuine value to be found.

Burnley vs Wolves Key Stats

  • Burnley are 19th with 21 points from 37 games, having scored 37 and conceded 74 in the league.
  • In their most recent Premier League meeting on 26 October 2025 at Molineux Stadium, Burnley beat Wolves 3-2.
  • Burnley average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per league game, while Wolves average 0.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Burnley vs Wolves — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 19 vs 20
  • Points: 21 vs 19
  • Goals For: 37 vs 26
  • Goals Against: 74 vs 67
  • Clean Sheets: Burnley 4 vs Wolves 4

The season record shows Burnley marginally ahead, but only just. They have four wins, nine draws and 24 defeats, with a goal difference of -37. Wolves have three wins, 10 draws and 24 defeats, with a goal difference of -41. Both sides are already confirmed in the “Relegation - Championship” zone, underlining how poor their campaigns have been.

Burnley have at least found the net more regularly, scoring 37 times to Wolves’ 26, but they have also shipped more goals. Wolves’ away record is particularly grim: no away wins, five draws and 13 defeats, with just seven goals scored on the road and 33 conceded. Burnley’s home record is slightly better, with two wins, six draws and 10 defeats at Turf Moor. That home edge, against Wolves’ travel sickness, is a key factor in any Burnley vs Wolves prediction.

Burnley vs Wolves Key Matchups

Z. Flemming vs André

Z. Flemming has been Burnley’s standout attacking threat. The 27-year-old has 10 league goals from 28 appearances, with 20 shots on target from 37 attempts and two penalties scored from two. His ability to find the net in a struggling side makes him central to Burnley’s hopes of breaking down a Wolves defence that concedes 1.8 goals per game.

For Wolves, André has been a midfield workhorse and a disciplinary hotspot. Across 34 appearances and 2676 minutes, he has picked up 12 yellow cards, underlining his combative style. He has contributed one goal and offers strong passing numbers with 1285 passes at 91% accuracy, plus 78 tackles and 29 interceptions. His duel with Flemming between the lines — both in and out of possession — will go a long way to deciding territorial control and whether Burnley’s main scorer can influence the game.

K. Walker vs João Gomes

On Burnley’s right, K. Walker has been a defensive mainstay. He has made 35 appearances, logging 3007 minutes, with nine yellow cards and two assists. His 1361 passes at 76% accuracy, 55 tackles, 10 blocks and 44 interceptions show how much he contributes both in build-up and defensive solidity.

João Gomes, by contrast, is Wolves’ midfield engine. In 35 appearances (32 starts) and 2843 minutes, he has one goal and one assist, but his real value lies in his work rate: 108 tackles, 36 interceptions and 449 duels contested, winning 227. He also has 10 yellow cards. The battle between Walker pushing forward from full-back and João Gomes patrolling central areas could shape Wolves’ ability to press and counter, and offers a live angle for cards-related betting markets.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent head-to-head history leans slightly towards Wolves, but Burnley have enjoyed notable wins in key Premier League fixtures. Across their last five competitive and friendly meetings, Wolves have three wins, Burnley two, with one draw in that span if you extend further back.

  • 26 October 2025: Wolves 2-3 Burnley (Premier League)
  • 28 August 2024: Wolves 2-0 Burnley (League Cup)
  • 2 April 2024: Burnley 1-1 Wolves (Premier League)
  • 5 December 2023: Wolves 1-0 Burnley (Premier League)
  • 9 July 2022: Wolves 3-0 Burnley (Friendlies Clubs)

Burnley vs Wolves Prediction

Analysis points to a tight, low-quality but fiercely contested match. Both sides arrive in poor league form — Burnley with “LDLLL” and Wolves with “DLDLL” over their last five league games — and both average well under 1.5 goals scored per match. Wolves’ away attack has been particularly blunt, with just seven goals in 18 away fixtures.

The predictive metrics slightly favour Wolves on the double-chance, with 45% probabilities assigned to both the away win and the draw, and only 10% for a Burnley victory. However, Burnley’s home advantage and Wolves’ inability to win away suggest the most likely outcome is a draw, with very few goals. Given the goals projections are set conservatively and both sides struggle to create, a stalemate feels the most realistic call.

Predicted Score: Burnley 1-1 Wolves

Burnley League Form

LDLLL

Wolves League Form

DLDLL

Burnley Possible Starting Lineup

M. Dúbravka; K. Walker, J. Worrall, H. Ekdal, Lucas Pires; J. Ward-Prowse, Florentino, J. Cullen; Z. Flemming, J. Bruun Larsen, L. Foster.

Burnley have rotated through several shapes this season, most commonly a 4-2-3-1, and that framework fits their available personnel. M. Dúbravka is a natural pick in goal, with K. Walker’s experience and defensive numbers making him a lock at right-back. J. Worrall and H. Ekdal offer a physical central pairing, while Lucas Pires can provide balance on the left. In midfield, the passing range of J. Ward-Prowse and the defensive cover of Florentino and J. Cullen give a stable platform for Z. Flemming to operate as the main attacking threat, supported by J. Bruun Larsen and L. Foster in forward roles.

Wolves Possible Starting Lineup

José Sá; Toti Gomes, Y. Mosquera, L. Krejčí; Pedro Lima, André, João Gomes, Hugo Bueno; J. Bellegarde; Hwang Hee-Chan, A. Armstrong.

Wolves have frequently used back-three systems such as 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2, and a similar structure suits their squad. José Sá is a proven first choice in goal, with Y. Mosquera’s strong duel and tackle numbers making him central in defence alongside Toti Gomes and L. Krejčí. Out wide, Pedro Lima and Hugo Bueno can provide width, while the midfield axis of André and João Gomes offers ball-winning and distribution. J. Bellegarde can link play behind a front pairing of Hwang Hee-Chan and A. Armstrong, looking to improve on an attack that averages only 0.7 goals per match.

Burnley Team News

No significant absences reported.

Wolves Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Burnley:

  • None reported.

Wolves:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Burnley vs Wolves

Exactly three markets stand out for this Burnley vs Wolves prediction and betting guide:

  • Result Tip: Back “Draw or Wolves” on the double-chance. The predictive edge gives Wolves and the draw 45% each, with only 10% for a Burnley win, and Wolves are marginally favoured overall despite their away record. While the double-chance price itself is not listed, those leaning towards a straight result can note that Wolves are around 2.63–2.84 with major firms such as Betfair (2.63), Pinnacle (2.79) and 1xBet (2.84), compared to Burnley at roughly 2.45–2.56.
  • Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals appeals. Burnley average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game; Wolves average just 0.7 scored and 1.8 conceded, with only one of Wolves’ 37 league matches going over 2.5 goals on their own scoring metrics. Recent H2H has produced some higher-scoring contests, but the current attacking numbers and relegation pressure point towards a cagey, low-scoring affair. While specific under/over odds are not provided, this is a logical angle based on GF/GA data.
  • Value Tip: Wolves to receive more cards or a Wolves player to be booked has underlying value, particularly around André and João Gomes. André has 12 yellow cards in 34 appearances and João Gomes has 10 yellows in 35, highlighting Wolves’ aggressive midfield profile. For those preferring a match-winner value stance, Wolves’ away price peaks at 2.84 with 1xBet, which is generous given they are rated 45% likely to avoid defeat on the double-chance.

How to Watch Burnley vs Wolves

Broadcast coverage varies by region. General guide:

  • Spain: Movistar LaLiga
  • UK: Premier Sports
  • Australia: beIN Sports
  • India: FanCode
  • MENA: beIN Sports
  • South America: ESPN / Disney+
  • Africa: SuperSport

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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