Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid Predicted Lineups: Team News for La Liga

Athletic Club host Atletico Madrid in Bilbao in Round 4 of the 2026 La Liga regular season, with both sides looking to shape their early campaign trajectory. The Basques sit 12th with 3 points from their first 3 matches, having recorded 1 win and 2 defeats, scoring 3 and conceding 5. Atletico arrive in far stronger early form, 3rd in the table with 7 points, unbeaten with 2 wins and 1 draw, and a +4 goal difference after scoring 7 and conceding only 3.

Recent head-to-head meetings underline how finely balanced this fixture can be, even if Atletico have often found a way to edge tight contests. The last league clash in Madrid finished 3-2 to Atletico, while Athletic edged the most recent San Mamés league meeting 1-0. With both teams already showing clear attacking patterns in their early-season numbers, this is a prime candidate for close, high-intensity football where predicted lineups and selection calls could decide the margins.

With no official lineups released yet, this preview focuses on analytically predicted lineups, expected starting lineup structures, and key absences based on current squad lists, early-season form and available stats. Atletico’s stronger league position and attacking output make them slight favourites, but Athletic’s home environment in Bilbao and their aggressive style ensure this remains one of the standout fixtures on the La Liga schedule.

Athletic Club Team News & Expected Lineups Today

Athletic Club come into this match on a mixed run, with league form reading “WLL”. They have scored in every game so far but have been exposed defensively, conceding 5 goals in 3 matches, including 3 at home in their only San Mamés outing. The coaching staff are expected to stay close to their usual proactive, front-foot approach, but with a sharper focus on defensive balance against an Atletico side that has been efficient in the final third.

There are several confirmed absences that will influence the expected selection. Defenders Unai Eguíluz and Dani Vivian, midfielder Beñat Prados and attacker Nico Serrano are all ruled out as missing this fixture. That removes one centre-back option and a central midfielder from contention, slightly narrowing the choices in the back line and engine room. Even so, Athletic still have enough depth across defence and midfield to field a competitive starting lineup, with senior figures such as Unai Simón, Aymeric Laporte, Oihan Sancet and the Williams brothers expected to shoulder responsibility.

Athletic Club Predicted Lineups & Starting Lineup

Predicted Starting XI:
GK: Unai Simón
DF: Yeray; Yuri; Gorosabel; Aymeric Laporte
MF: Ruiz de Galarreta; Oihan Sancet; Robert Navarro; Álex Berenguer
FW: I. Williams; Nico Williams

This predicted starting lineup leans heavily on Athletic’s most established spine and attacking talent. Unai Simón is the clear first-choice goalkeeper in this squad list and should again anchor a back line built around Aymeric Laporte and Yeray, with Yuri and Gorosabel providing experience and width from full-back. Yuri’s presence is notable given his red card record this season, indicating an aggressive style that can both help in duels and carry disciplinary risk.

In midfield, Ruiz de Galarreta and Oihan Sancet are natural choices to control rhythm and link play. Sancet is one of Athletic’s primary creative hubs between the lines, while Robert Navarro and Álex Berenguer add ball-carrying and shooting threat from advanced midfield or wide roles. Up front, the Williams brothers, I. Williams and Nico Williams, form the obvious attacking spearhead. Their pace and 1v1 ability are central to Athletic’s expected game plan, especially in transition and in exploiting space behind Atletico’s defensive line. Gorka Guruzeta, who features prominently in disciplinary stats with multiple yellow cards, is likely to be a key option off the bench, offering a physical focal point if Athletic need a different profile late on.

Atletico Madrid Team News & Expected Lineups Today

Atletico Madrid arrive in Bilbao in excellent early form, with a league sequence of “WDW” and 7 points from 3 matches. They have averaged 2.3 goals scored per game while conceding just 1 per match, underlining a strong balance between attack and defence. Their last-five metrics show a high attacking and defensive index, and they have been particularly dangerous late in games, with a notable share of goals coming in the final quarter of matches.

Diego Simeone’s side do have some notable absences to manage. Attacker J. Álvarez is out for personal reasons, striker A. Sørloth is sidelined with a muscle injury, and midfielder O. Vargas is unavailable due to a coach’s decision. Even with those missing, Atletico’s squad depth in attacking and midfield areas remains strong. The presence of Álex Baena, Lee Kang-In and G. Simeone in both top scorers and top assists lists suggests they will form the core of the attacking structure in the lineups today, supported by a stable defensive unit that has already shown resilience this season.

Atletico Madrid Predicted Lineups & Starting Lineup

Predicted Starting XI:
GK: J. Oblak
DF: J. Giménez; Álex Grimaldo; D. Hancko; Robin Le Normand
MF: Koke; M. Hjulmand; Pablo Barrios; Marcos Llorente
FW: Álex Baena; G. Simeone

Atletico have alternated between different shapes this season, including systems with a flat midfield line and a single pivot, but the core personnel are likely to remain similar. J. Oblak should continue in goal, with a defensive line built around J. Giménez and Robin Le Normand as central pillars, flanked by Álex Grimaldo and D. Hancko. Le Normand’s presence is important in aerial duels and build-up, although he also appears in the red card statistics, underlining the need for discipline in a heated away environment.

In midfield, Koke and M. Hjulmand provide structure and ball circulation, while Pablo Barrios and Marcos Llorente offer energy, pressing and vertical runs. The key creative and scoring threat, however, is expected to come from Álex Baena and G. Simeone. Baena has started the campaign in outstanding form, with 3 goals and 1 assist from 3 appearances, ranking near the top of the league’s attacking metrics. Lee Kang-In, also high in both goals and assists charts, is another strong candidate to feature heavily, either from the start or as an impact option, given his dribbling numbers, chance creation and work rate. G. Simeone’s blend of pressing intensity and penalty-box movement makes him a natural focal point in the predicted starting lineup, especially with A. Sørloth unavailable.

Injuries and Suspended Players Impact

The confirmed absences on both sides have a clear impact on depth and tactical flexibility, even if the core starting elevens remain strong. Athletic’s issues are more concentrated in defence and central midfield, while Atletico’s problems are primarily in the centre-forward and squad-rotation zones.

Athletic Club Absences:

Unai Eguíluz — Knee Injury (Missing Fixture)
Beñat Prados — Thigh Injury (Missing Fixture)
Nico Serrano — Coach's decision (Missing Fixture)
Dani Vivian — Hamstring Injury (Missing Fixture)

Atletico Madrid Absences:

J. Álvarez — Personal Reasons (Missing Fixture)
A. Sørloth — Muscle Injury (Missing Fixture)
O. Vargas — Coach's decision (Missing Fixture)

For Athletic, losing Dani Vivian and Unai Eguíluz reduces the options for rotation at centre-back and may force heavier minutes for Aymeric Laporte and Yeray. The absence of Beñat Prados slightly limits the ability to adjust the midfield profile during the game. For Atletico, being without A. Sørloth removes a traditional target man option, increasing the importance of G. Simeone and the attacking contributions from Álex Baena and Lee Kang-In.

Tactical Analysis: How the Lineups Match Up

This contest sets up as a clash between Athletic’s aggressive, wing-focused attacking play and Atletico’s more controlled but incisive approach. Athletic have averaged 1 goal per game so far, with a tendency to score in the middle phases of halves, and they will look to exploit the flanks through I. Williams and Nico Williams. Their predicted wide defenders, Yuri and Gorosabel, are likely to support high up the pitch, creating 2v1 situations against Atletico’s full-backs. However, Athletic’s defensive record of 5 goals conceded in 3 games and the pattern of goals allowed across multiple time windows suggest they can be opened up if their press is bypassed.

Atletico’s offensive numbers are more impressive: 7 goals in 3 matches, with scoring spread across all phases of the game and a particular punch in the final quarter-hour. Álex Baena’s 3 goals and 1 assist, combined with Lee Kang-In’s blend of goals, assists and dribbling, give Simeone multiple creative hubs. G. Simeone’s presence as a hard-working forward will test Athletic’s centre-backs in both aerial duels and defensive transitions. The comparison indices strongly favour Atletico across form, attack and defence, and the Poisson index also tilts heavily towards the visitors, underlining their superior underlying performance. The key tactical question is whether Athletic can maintain compactness while still pressing high enough to disrupt Atletico’s buildup through Koke and M. Hjulmand.

Match Prediction and Verdict

All indicators point to a very tight match. The outcome probabilities give Atletico Madrid a 50% chance of victory, with a 50% probability assigned to the draw and essentially no win probability for Athletic in that model. That reflects Atletico’s superior early-season form, stronger underlying attacking and defensive indices, and a favourable recent head-to-head record, especially in league fixtures.

However, the betting markets are more balanced. Across major bookmakers, Athletic’s home win odds range from 2.68 to 2.95, implying an approximate probability band of about 33.9–37.3%. The draw sits between 3.12 and 3.56, roughly 28.1–32.1%, while Atletico’s away win odds vary from 2.29 to 2.53, an implied 39.5–43.7% chance. That pricing acknowledges both Atletico’s edge and the difficulty of visiting Bilbao. Given Atletico’s more reliable attack, their defensive record, and the absence of a clear centre-forward alternative for Athletic beyond Guruzeta, the visitors remain the more likely side to edge it, but the probability of a stalemate is also significant.

Predicted Outcome: Athletic Club 1–2 Atletico Madrid

How to Watch Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid Worldwide

Here is how you can watch the match and see the official lineups today live:

Spain: Local La Liga pay-TV broadcaster / streaming platform
UK: Major sports pay-TV channel carrying La Liga rights
USA / North America: Subscription sports streaming service with La Liga coverage
South America: Regional sports network or OTT platform showing La Liga
MENA: Premium sports satellite network with La Liga rights