World Cup 2023: Key Matches and Stakes as Groups G, H, and I Conclude
The World Cup tightens its grip on the calendar on Friday. By the end of the night, Groups G, H and I will be stripped of uncertainty, with qualification, seeding and survival all decided across three countries and six cities.
Knockout football is already peeking over the horizon. Thirteen places remain. For some, this is a lap of honour. For others, it is the edge of a cliff.
France and Norway duel for Group I supremacy
In Boston, Norway and France meet with the safety net already in place. Both are through. The prize now is position, not survival.
History leans heavily in France’s favour. Les Bleus dismantled Norway 4-0 in their last meeting, a friendly back in 2014, and this will be the 16th chapter in a one-sided story. Norway have won only two of their competitive clashes with France, and you have to rewind to a European Championship qualifier in 1987 for their last such success.
Their World Cup record against European opposition offers little comfort: five games, no wins, two draws, three defeats. France, by contrast, arrive on a run of five straight World Cup victories over European teams.
Opta’s supercomputer reflects that imbalance. France are given a 59.4 percent chance of victory. A draw, rated at 20.6 percent, would still be enough for them to lock up top spot in Group I. Norway’s shot at an upset sits at 20 percent.
Top spot, and a potentially smoother path in the Round of 32, is what’s on the line. Pride, too.
Senegal chase safety, Iraq cling to a thread
In Toronto, the stakes are far more brutal.
Senegal cannot win Group I, but they can still salvage their World Cup. Unbeaten against AFC opposition at this tournament across history – a draw with Japan in 2018, a win over Qatar in 2022 – they now meet Iraq for the first time on this stage.
For Iraq, it is uncharted territory in more ways than one. They have never faced an African side at a World Cup, and the numbers do not flatter them. Opta makes Senegal overwhelming favourites: 77.2 percent to win, with Iraq at just 8.6 percent and the draw at 14.2 percent.
Senegal’s chances of reaching the last 32 sit at 72.2 percent. Iraq’s hopes, a faint 1.1 percent, cling to improbable combinations elsewhere. One misstep, and their tournament ends with a whimper.
Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia in a straight fight
Houston hosts a meeting of two nations who rarely see this kind of stage, and both know exactly what is at stake.
Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia have never met at a World Cup, yet Saudi experience against African sides is respectable: five previous games, just one defeat, with two wins and two draws.
The models lean ever so slightly towards the islanders. Cape Verde are given a 40.8 percent chance of victory, Saudi Arabia 33.9 percent, with the draw at 25.3 percent. In qualification terms, the margins are just as tight: Cape Verde’s chances of reaching the last 32 are rated at 66.7 percent, Saudi Arabia’s at 33.3 percent.
One game to tilt those numbers into reality. One game to keep a dream alive.
Spain look to shut the door; Uruguay seek an upset
In Guadalajara, the fixture list serves up a classic nameplate clash: Uruguay vs Spain, two former winners meeting at a World Cup for the first time in more than 30 years.
Their history on this stage is brief but balanced. A 2-2 draw in the final round of the 1950 tournament. A goalless stalemate at Italia ’90. Two meetings, two draws, no separation.
This time, the context is different. Spain, reigning European champions, top Group H and are expected to finish the job. Opta’s supercomputer gives them a 62.4 percent chance of victory over 25,000 simulations. Uruguay come out on top in 15.7 percent, with a draw in 21.9 percent.
Spain are playing for first place and control of their bracket. Uruguay are playing to remind the tournament that pedigree still matters.
Egypt vs Iran: fine margins, heavy meaning
Seattle gets a fixture rich in subtext and history, even if the World Cup record is blank.
Egypt and Iran have met only once before, at the 2000 LG Cup in Tehran. That day finished 1-1, with current Egypt coach Hossam Hassan on the scoresheet and Iran legend Ali Daei providing the reply, before Egypt edged an 8-7 penalty shootout.
Now they face each other on the biggest stage, with Group G on a knife-edge. Iran’s World Cup record against African opposition is quietly impressive: unbeaten, with a win over Morocco in 2018 and draws against Angola (2006) and Nigeria (2014).
Yet Opta tilts slightly towards Egypt. The North Africans are given a 42.9 percent chance of victory, Iran 24.9 percent, with a draw at 32.2 percent. In a group where Egypt lead on four points, with Iran and Belgium on two and New Zealand on one, every tackle, every set piece, every decision could shift an entire bracket.
Belgium heavy favourites, but walking a strange line
In Vancouver, New Zealand and Belgium meet for the first time at a World Cup. On paper, it looks lopsided. On the pitch, the pressure belongs almost entirely to Belgium.
New Zealand arrive with a curious bit of history: unbeaten in their last two World Cup matches against European opposition, having drawn with Slovakia and Italy in 2010. That was a different era, a different squad, but the memory lingers.
Belgium, though, carry the weight of expectation. Opta gives them an 80.3 percent chance of victory, with a draw at 11.8 percent and New Zealand winning in just 7.9 percent of simulations. There is another oddity in play: Belgium could become the first European side since their own 1998 team to draw all three group games at a World Cup.
Group G is wide open behind Egypt. Belgium’s margin for error is not.
The state of the groups: who’s in, who’s scrambling
As Friday dawns, six groups are already done. Groups G to L are still sorting out the rest.
Mexico stand alone as the only team with a perfect record so far, nine points from nine. They top a list of confirmed qualifiers that already reads like a roll call of global football: Mexico, South Africa, Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Morocco, USA, Australia, Germany, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, France and Norway.
Today’s unfinished business:
- Group G: Egypt lead on 4 points, Iran and Belgium sit on 2, New Zealand on 1.
- Group H: Spain are top with 4 points, while Uruguay and Cape Verde have 2 each.
- Group I: France and Norway are safely through, but first place remains undecided.
Groups J, K and L will wrap up on Saturday. Thirteen tickets to the Round of 32 are still unclaimed. By the end of the weekend, the bracket will be set and the margin for error gone.
Turkiye sting the US at the death
Not every drama this week has carried consequences, but that did not dull the edge at SoFi Stadium.
In a Group D finale that meant nothing on paper, Turkiye struck a 98th-minute winner to beat the United States 3-2 in front of nearly 70,000 fans. The US had already secured top spot. Turkiye were eliminated before kickoff. Pride, rhythm, and opportunity were all that remained.
Mauricio Pochettino used the freedom to rotate heavily, making nine changes and handing seven players their first World Cup starts. The game opened up, stretched into a high-tempo contest, and Turkiye refused to treat it like a dead rubber.
For them, it was a farewell. For the US, a reminder that even in matches without stakes, lapses can be punished.
Africa’s surge: six through, more chasing history
The expanded 48-team format has given more African sides a platform. They are taking it.
Ten African nations reached this World Cup. Morocco and South Africa are already through. Ivory Coast have also secured a place in the Round of 32. Egypt, Algeria, DR Congo, Ghana and Cape Verde all head into their final group games with qualification still in their own hands.
As many as eight African teams could reach the knockouts. That would mark a new high-water mark for the continent, a statement not just of participation but of genuine depth.
A World Cup of moments: from a lone anthem to a double Infantino
For all the tactical diagrams and data models, this tournament keeps finding its soul away from the chalkboard.
Before Colombia’s Group K clash with DR Congo, one of the World Cup’s defining images unfolded during the national anthems. Thousands of Colombian fans in the stands fell silent so that a lone DR Congo supporter could sing his country’s anthem, alone but unchallenged. When he finished, the Colombians erupted in applause and cheers, embracing him in a rare, pure moment of respect and shared joy.
Colombia went on to win 1-0 and book their place in the Round of 32, but the clip that raced around the world came from before a ball was kicked.
Another viral moment belonged to Gianni Infantino – or perhaps his doppelgänger. During the final Group E fixtures, the FIFA President appeared on the big screens at both Ecuador vs Germany and Curacao vs Ivory Coast, games played simultaneously in different cities. Social media lit up with jokes about the president being in two places at once, a surreal footnote on a night when Ecuador stunned Germany 2-1 and Ivory Coast beat Curacao 2-0 to reach the knockouts.
Mexico perfect, Netherlands paint a city
On the field, Mexico have done everything asked of them and more.
At the Azteca, they completed a flawless Group A campaign with a 3-0 win over Czechia. Already assured of top spot, they still went through the gears after the break. Mateo Chavez broke the deadlock, Julian Quinones added his second goal of the tournament, and substitute Alvaro Fidalgo finished the job.
Czechia’s hopes of the Round of 32 ended there. Mexico advanced with maximum points and the confidence that comes with it, waiting now for one of the best third-placed teams in the next round.
North of the border, the Netherlands turned Kansas City into a travelling home game. Local reports estimated more than 35,000 Dutch fans took part in the Oranje Fanwalk before their match against Tunisia, flooding downtown streets from the Power & Light District to the FIFA Fan Fest. Songs, flags, the iconic orange bus – the city briefly became an annex of Amsterdam.
It was one of the largest fan marches of the tournament so far, and another reminder that this World Cup is as much about the journeys as the results.
Borders, visas and a tournament that mirrors the world
Away from the stadiums, the World Cup’s contradictions are never far from view.
Speaking on The Take, journalist Boima Tucker described a tournament that celebrates global unity while operating against a backdrop of increasingly restrictive border policies. Travelling through host cities, he found immigrant communities living the World Cup in their own ways: Moroccan and Senegalese fans in New York, Cape Verdean supporters in Massachusetts, thousands of Ghanaians packing a watch party in Toronto.
“It’s been wonderful to get an intimate look at how the World Cup has affected people in their homes,” he said. “People are excited to talk about their teams and their countries.”
Yet the same World Cup has highlighted the obstacles many face simply to be present. Iran’s national team have been based in Tijuana, Mexico, crossing into the US only for matches. Officials and players’ relatives have struggled to secure visas. Tucker argued that these off-field hurdles inevitably bleed into performance.
“When you’re an athlete, you want to be locked in. You want to be concentrating on the field, on the results,” he said. “If you have to jump through hurdles, that’s definitely going to affect the field of play.”
For him, the tournament exposes a broader reality. “We live in a global system that restricts people’s movement,” he said, noting that even when high-profile cases are resolved, “their reunion is not going to lead to systemic change.”
Yet amid those constraints, he still sees football doing what it does best: connecting people who might otherwise never share a space. He described immigrant communities celebrating side by side, using the World Cup as a rare chance to mingle across ethnic, national and class lines.
“I hope people remember this World Cup as one in which people across ethnic lines, national identities and class lines were able to briefly mingle and learn something about each other,” he said. “More than anything, those borders that we have in our daily lives were briefly overcome.”
On Friday, as France and Norway chase seeding, as Egypt, Iran, Belgium, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and others fight to stay alive, that is the real question hanging over this World Cup: when the final whistle blows on 2026, will those briefly opened doors stay ajar, or slam shut once the lights go out?
