Forge vs York United Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Forge welcome York United to Tim Hortons Field on 5 September 2026 in a Canadian Premier League Group Stage clash that pits one of the league’s title contenders against a side battling to stay in touch with the pack. With Forge sitting second on 41 points and York United down in seventh on 18, the stakes are very different but equally clear for both clubs.

Forge have been one of the division’s standard-bearers again, winning 13 of their 19 matches and boasting the league’s tightest defence with just 14 goals conceded. At home they have turned Tim Hortons Field into a stronghold, dropping points in only two of nine games. York United, by contrast, are leaking goals at an alarming rate – 37 conceded in 17 – and arrive on the back of a mixed run where sporadic attacking bursts have been undermined by defensive frailty.

For fans and bettors looking for Forge vs York United predictions, H2H trends, form lines and player stats all point towards another home-dominated chapter in this rivalry. Yet York’s attacking threats, particularly in transition, ensure this is not a foregone conclusion.

Forge vs York United Key Stats

• Forge are 2nd with 41 points from 19 matches (13 wins), scoring 29 and conceding 14; York United are 7th with 18 points from 17 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 37.
• Forge are unbeaten in their last eight meetings with York United across league and cup, including a 3-1 away win on 26 July 2026 and a 4-1 away win on 7 June 2026.
• Season statistics show Forge averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match, while York United average 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded.

Forge vs York United — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 2 vs 7
• Points: 41 vs 18
• Goals For: 29 vs 22
• Goals Against: 14 vs 37
• Clean Sheets: 9 vs 2

The standings underline just how far apart these sides have been over the 2026 campaign to date. Forge have taken 41 points from 19 matches, winning nearly 70% of their games and posting a +15 goal difference. Their defensive record is elite: only 14 goals conceded, and nine clean sheets across those 19 fixtures. At Tim Hortons Field they have 7 wins, 1 draw and just 1 defeat, with a goals record of 13 scored and 5 conceded.

York United, meanwhile, sit seventh on 18 points from 17 matches with a -15 goal difference. They have managed only 4 wins, and their defence has been porous, conceding 37 goals – more than two per match on average. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 defeats (7 scored, 18 conceded), underlining how difficult this trip to Hamilton is likely to be against one of the league’s most balanced sides.

Forge vs York United Key Matchups

D. Nimick vs T. Skublak

One of the pivotal battles will be between Forge defender Daniel Nimick and York United forward T. Skublak. Nimick has been outstanding in 2026, starting all 17 of his appearances and registering 3 goals from the back. He combines defensive solidity – 8 tackles, 4 blocks, 8 interceptions and 18 duels won out of 26 – with quality on the ball, completing 388 passes at 89% accuracy and even converting 2 penalties.

Skublak is York’s main scoring threat, with 4 goals and 1 assist in 15 appearances. He is active and combative in the final third, with 14 shots (7 on target), 5 key passes, and 66 duels contested, winning 35. He also draws fouls (8) but walks a disciplinary tightrope with 6 yellow cards. If Nimick can contain Skublak’s physical presence and aerial threat, Forge will go a long way towards neutralising York’s most reliable finisher.

T. Borges vs B. Badibanga

At the creative end, Forge playmaker Tristan Borges and York midfielder Béni Badibanga offer contrasting but influential profiles. Borges has 1 goal and 3 assists in 18 appearances, with 17 key passes and 157 total passes at 80% accuracy. His ability to find pockets of space and deliver the final ball is central to Forge’s attacking structure, and he also contributes defensively with 13 tackles and 6 interceptions.

Badibanga, for York, has matched Borges’ assist tally with 3 in just 13 appearances and 295 minutes. He has produced 10 key passes from 105 total passes at 81% accuracy and wins the majority of his duels (22 out of 34). Drawing 12 fouls, he is adept at carrying the ball into dangerous areas. The duel between Borges’ orchestration and Badibanga’s direct creativity could shape which side controls the midfield and chance creation.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

This fixture has been dominated by Forge in recent seasons, both home and away. York United have struggled to turn performances into results, often undone by defensive lapses and Forge’s clinical edge in the final third.

• 26 July 2026: York United 1-3 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
• 7 June 2026: York United 1-4 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
• 18 October 2025: Forge 3-0 York United (Canadian Premier League)
• 9 August 2025: York United 1-2 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
• 29 June 2025: Forge 2-2 York United (Canadian Premier League)

Forge vs York United Prediction

All available indicators point towards Forge having a strong edge at Tim Hortons Field. They are superior in the table, more solid defensively, and have dominated the recent head-to-head series, including two convincing away wins over York earlier in 2026. Their season-long averages of 1.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match contrast sharply with York’s 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded, suggesting a game where Forge control territory and chances.

The prediction model gives Forge a 45% chance of winning, with a 45% probability of a draw and just 10% for a York United victory. That aligns with the “double chance: Forge or draw” advice and reflects the possibility that Forge’s occasionally inconsistent recent form (LWWLL in the standings) could allow York to stay in the game. York’s last-five attacking index is respectable and they have scored 7 goals in their last 5 outings, but their defensive numbers – 12 conceded across those same matches – are a major concern against a clinical home side.

Predicted Score: Forge 2-1 York United

Forge Recent Form

Forge’s recent league form is mixed at first glance, with a sequence of LWWLL in the standings. That run reflects a side that can occasionally slip but generally responds well, backed up by broader season statistics of 13 wins from 19 matches and 9 clean sheets. Their last-five performance indices show balanced output: 6 goals scored and 6 conceded, pointing to competitive but sometimes tight contests.

York United Recent Form

York United’s recent league form line reads LDWDL, which encapsulates their inconsistency. They have shown flashes of improvement, including a win and a draw in that stretch, but they continue to concede too many goals. Over their last five matches they have scored 7 times but shipped 12, underscoring the defensive vulnerabilities that have kept them in the lower reaches of the table.

Forge Possible Starting Lineup

GK: D. Bertaud; Defenders: M. Jevremović, D. Krutzen, D. Nimick, R. Rama; Midfielders: A. Aromatario, K. Bekker, Molham Babouli; Forwards: T. Borges, N. Ampomah, B. Wright.

Forge have the squad depth to rotate, but the spine built around Jevremović and Nimick at the back, Aromatario and Bekker in midfield, and a front line featuring Borges and Ampomah offers balance between control and penetration. With nine clean sheets this season and only 14 goals conceded, their likely shape – often a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 – is designed to dominate possession while limiting transitions. The presence of multiple attackers such as I. Oketokoun and L. Johnson on the bench gives them options to change the game state if needed.

York United Possible Starting Lineup

GK: I. Pavela; Defenders: J. Córdova, C. Guzmán, O. León, L. Singh; Midfielders: O. Bassett, K. Kibato, M. Ferrari, B. Badibanga; Forwards: T. Skublak, J. Altobelli.

York United’s best route into the match is likely through a compact defensive structure with quick outlets to Skublak and Altobelli, supported by Badibanga and Bassett from midfield. Their use of systems such as 3-4-3 and 4-2-3-1 this season suggests flexibility, but whichever shape they choose must address the average of 2.2 goals conceded per game. With only 2 clean sheets all season, York will need a disciplined performance from their back line and holding midfielders to withstand Forge’s pressure.

Forge Team News

No significant absences reported.

York United Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Forge:

• None reported.

York United:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Forge vs York United

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Forge in the double chance market (Forge or draw). With a 45% win probability for Forge and 45% for the draw against only 10% for a York victory, plus dominant H2H and a far stronger defensive record, the home side avoiding defeat looks a solid foundation bet, even if the straight home win may be shorter-priced.
• Goals Tip: Over 2.5 total goals. Forge average 1.5 goals scored per match and York concede 2.2 on average, while recent meetings include scorelines of 3-1, 4-1 and 3-0. York’s last five games have produced 19 total goals (7 for, 12 against), suggesting another open contest with multiple scoring chances.
• Value Tip: Forge to score at least 2 goals. Their attack has hit 29 goals in 19 matches, York’s defence has allowed 18 in 9 away games, and key creators like T. Borges (3 assists, 17 key passes) and finishers such as N. Ampomah and B. Wright give Forge multiple routes to goal. Given York’s vulnerability, a team-goals angle on Forge could offer better value than the match result market alone.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.