Everton vs Sunderland: Premier League Late-Season Clash

Everton host Sunderland at Hill Dickinson Stadium in a late‑season Premier League clash where both sides are separated by just 1 point in the table (Everton 10th on 49 points, Sunderland 12th on 48). The market and the prediction model both lean towards the hosts, but not strongly enough to rule out a stalemate.

Looking at overall league performance from the standings, Everton have 13 wins, 10 draws and 13 losses from 36 matches, with a goal difference of 46‑46. Sunderland sit on 12 wins, 12 draws and 12 defeats, scoring 37 and conceding 46. Everton are more productive in attack (46 goals vs 37) and have a slightly stronger home profile: 6‑5‑7 at home with 25 scored and 24 conceded. Sunderland’s away record is weaker at 4‑6‑8, with just 14 away goals and 27 conceded, underlining why bookmakers have them as clear underdogs.

Form-wise, the raw league “form” strings are long, but the prediction module’s last‑five snapshot is revealing. Everton’s last five show only 20% “form” despite a strong 75% attack index and a very low 8% defence index, with 9 scored and 11 conceded (1.8 for, 2.2 against per game). That suggests open, chaotic matches where they create but also give up plenty. Sunderland’s last five are more balanced at 33% form, with a 42% attack index and 17% defence index, scoring 5 and conceding 10 (1.0 for, 2.0 against). They are less potent going forward but only marginally more solid at the back.

Over the full league campaign, Everton average 1.3 goals for and 1.3 against per match; Sunderland average 1.0 for and 1.3 against. Sunderland’s away attack (0.8 goals per game) is a clear weakness, and Everton’s home defence (1.3 conceded per game) is roughly league‑average. Both teams have 11 clean sheets in total, but Sunderland have failed to score 13 times versus Everton’s 9, again hinting that the away side are more likely to blank.

Head‑to‑Head

Head‑to‑head data, excluding friendlies, show a mix of competitions and venues that must be treated separately. In the most recent meeting on 2026‑01‑10 in the FA Cup Round of 64 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton and Sunderland drew 1‑1 after 90 minutes (Everton trailed 0‑1 at half‑time, levelled to 1‑1 full‑time) before Sunderland advanced on penalties (0‑3 in the shootout). Earlier in the same Premier League campaign, on 2025‑11‑03 at Stadium of Light, Sunderland and Everton drew 1‑1, with Everton leading 1‑0 at half‑time before being pegged back. Going further back, in the League Cup on 2017‑09‑20 at Goodison Park, Everton beat Sunderland 3‑0. In Premier League play on 2017‑02‑25 at Goodison Park, Everton won 2‑0, and on 2016‑09‑12 at Stadium of Light, Everton won 3‑0 away. Sunderland’s more distant successes include a 3‑0 home Premier League win on 2016‑05‑11 at Stadium of Light, a 6‑2 Premier League defeat at Goodison Park on 2015‑11‑01, a 2‑0 away Premier League win on 2015‑05‑09 at Goodison Park (Liverpool), a 1‑1 Premier League draw on 2014‑11‑09 at Stadium of Light (Sunderland), and a 1‑0 away Premier League win for Everton on 2014‑04‑12 at Stadium of Light (Sunderland). Recent competitive meetings in this calendar cycle show Everton generally performing well at home in regulation time, but Sunderland proving stubborn and capable of grinding out draws.

Prediction Model

The prediction model assigns 45% to an Everton win, 45% to the draw and only 10% to a Sunderland victory, with a comparison “total” rating of 60.0% for Everton versus 40.2% for Sunderland. The model’s recommended advice is explicitly “Double chance : Everton or draw”, with projected goals profiles of under 2.5 for the home side and under 1.5 for the away side, implying a relatively low‑scoring contest.

Bookmakers broadly agree on Everton’s edge. Home odds cluster between 1.79 and 1.90 (implied probability roughly 53–56%), draws around 3.45–3.86 (26–29%), and away wins around 3.80–4.36 (23–26%). The market is slightly more optimistic on Sunderland than the model’s 10%, but still prices Everton as solid favourites.

Betting verdict: aligning with the official prediction, the value‑conscious, model‑driven angle is to back Everton on the double‑chance market (Everton or draw). With both sides averaging around 1–1.3 goals scored per game and Sunderland’s away attack underperforming, a home‑leaning result in a match that could easily finish 1‑0 or 1‑1 fits both the statistical profile and the odds landscape.