NorthStandCA logo

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

CSKA Sofia welcome Qarabag to National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia on 30 July 2026 for the second leg of their UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. After a tight 0-0 draw in Baku on 23 July, everything is on the line in Bulgaria with a place in the next round at stake.

Both sides come into this clash unbeaten in the competition so far, but with contrasting profiles. CSKA Sofia have shown they can both score and concede in open games, while Qarabag have been defensively flawless in Europe this season. With the first leg ending goalless and previous friendlies between the teams being low-scoring, this Europa League qualifier has the feel of another cagey, tactical battle where a single moment could decide it.

From a betting perspective, CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag predictions centre on whether the Azerbaijani champions’ perfect defensive record can hold up in Sofia, and whether CSKA’s more open style can finally break them down. The market leans slightly towards the visitors, but the prediction models give equal weight to Qarabag and the draw, underlining just how finely balanced this tie is.

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Key Stats

  • In this Europa League campaign, CSKA Sofia have played 3 matches (home and away combined), winning 2 and drawing 1, scoring 5 goals and conceding 3.
  • The first leg on 23 July 2026 in Baku finished Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia in the UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round.
  • Qarabag’s Europa League tournament statistics show 3 clean sheets in 3 matches, scoring 6 goals and conceding none, with an average of 2.0 goals scored per game.

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: Not available vs Not available
  • Points: Not available vs Not available
  • Goals For: Not available vs Not available
  • Goals Against: Not available vs Not available
  • Clean Sheets: CSKA Sofia 1 (tournament statistics), Qarabag 3 (tournament statistics)

Traditional league-style standings are not yet available for this stage of the UEFA Europa League, but the tournament statistics give a clear picture of how both teams have started their European campaigns. CSKA Sofia have taken 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 3 across those fixtures. They have shown resilience, remaining unbeaten but not entirely watertight at the back.

Qarabag, by contrast, have been close to flawless. Across their 3 Europa League matches so far, they have scored 6 goals and not conceded once. Two of those games came at home and one away, with a consistent attacking output and a perfect defensive record. That combination of efficiency in front of goal and defensive solidity is a major reason why they are slight favourites to progress despite travelling to Sofia for this decisive leg.

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Key Matchups

CSKA Sofia attack vs Qarabag defensive unit

Without individual scorer data, the key battle for CSKA Sofia is collective rather than centred on a single star. Their Europa League statistics show 5 goals scored in 3 games, averaging 1.7 per match, but also 3 conceded at an average of 1.0 per game. They have been involved in more open contests, with their biggest home win a 3-2 scoreline and an away victory of 1-2, underlining their willingness to commit players forward.

They now face Qarabag’s outstanding defensive unit. Qarabag have played 3 Europa League matches, kept 3 clean sheets and conceded 0 goals, with their defensive index in recent games rated at 100 in the comparison data. Their ability to shut teams down, both home and away, was evident again in the 0-0 first leg. CSKA’s attacking intent against this disciplined, structured defence will be the central tactical storyline of the second leg.

Qarabag forwards vs CSKA Sofia back line

On the other side, Qarabag’s forwards have been efficient and clinical in Europe. They have scored 6 goals in 3 matches, averaging 2.0 per game, with their biggest wins a 3-0 home result and a 0-3 away victory. Their attacking index is slightly higher than CSKA’s in recent form, reflecting both volume and consistency in front of goal.

CSKA’s defence has been more vulnerable, conceding 3 goals in 3 matches, with an average of 1.0 conceded per game. They have yet to lose in Europe this season, but their biggest win (3-2 at home) also showed that they can be exposed at the back. If Qarabag manage to impose their usual attacking rhythm in Sofia, CSKA’s back line will have to be far more secure than in previous high-scoring encounters to keep the tie under control.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides are becoming familiar opponents, having met in both competitive and friendly fixtures in recent years. The pattern has been tight, low-scoring games, with Qarabag generally having the upper hand in non-competitive meetings and the first Europa League leg ending level.

  • 23 July 2026: Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia (UEFA Europa League)
  • 27 June 2026: CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag (Friendlies Clubs) – Match Cancelled
  • 4 July 2023: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag (Friendlies Clubs)
  • 7 July 2021: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag (Friendlies Clubs)

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Prediction

Everything points to another tight, tactical contest. The first leg in Baku ended 0-0, and the two previous friendlies in 2023 and 2021 both finished 0-1 in Qarabag’s favour. Qarabag’s tournament statistics show a perfect defensive record with 3 clean sheets and 0 goals conceded, while CSKA Sofia have been more open, scoring and conceding in equal measure in their other Europa League games.

The prediction models give CSKA Sofia only a 10% chance of winning in 90 minutes, with the draw and Qarabag each rated at 45%. That underlines both Qarabag’s status as slight favourites and the strong likelihood of another stalemate in normal time. Given Qarabag’s defensive dominance and solid attacking output in other matches, they are marginally better placed to edge a low-scoring encounter, but CSKA’s home advantage and unbeaten European run mean this is far from a foregone conclusion.

Predicted Score: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag

CSKA Sofia Recent Form

CSKA Sofia’s recent Europa League form is strong, with 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 matches. They have shown an ability to win both at home and away, highlighted by a 3-2 home victory and a 1-2 away success as their biggest wins in this run. Offensively, they average 1.7 goals scored per match (5 in total), but they also concede an average of 1.0 goal per game, indicating that their matches tend to be more open than Qarabag’s.

Qarabag Recent Form

Qarabag’s recent Europa League form mirrors CSKA’s in terms of results, with 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 matches, but the nature of those performances has been very different. They have scored 6 goals (2.0 per match on average) and have yet to concede, underlining a perfect defensive record. Their biggest wins, 3-0 at home and 0-3 away, show that they can control games both in Baku and on their travels, making them a very dangerous opponent in this second leg.

CSKA Sofia Possible Starting Lineup

Likely key players (grouped by position, based on squad list):
Goalkeepers: D. Evtimov, F. Lapoukhov, D. Nikolov
Defenders: J. Gbamin, T. Ivanov, Adrián Lapeña, Á. Martino, Pastor, Facundo Santiago Rodríguez, A. Tunchev, A. Yordanov, Tamimou Ouorou
Midfielders: G. Chorbadzhiyski, M. Ebong, J. Eto'o, J. Iliev, Bruno Jordão, V. Kaymakanov, A. Nikolov, P. Panayotov, S. Sensi, I. Solet Bomawoko, M. Brahimi, Léo Pereira, A. Piedrahita
Forwards: K. Dodaj, S. Godoy, M. Phaëton, I. Pittas, R. Zhivkov, J. Zwarts

CSKA Sofia have used several formations in this Europa League campaign (4-3-1-2, 3-5-2 and 4-4-2), suggesting tactical flexibility and a willingness to adjust to the opponent. With a deep pool of defenders and midfielders, they can either match Qarabag’s structure or push extra men forward in search of the goal they need. The presence of multiple forwards such as M. Phaëton, I. Pittas and J. Zwarts gives them options to vary their attacking approach, but they will need better defensive balance than in their 3-2 home win earlier in qualifying.

Qarabag Possible Starting Lineup

Likely key players (grouped by position, based on squad list):
Goalkeepers: B. Haciyev, M. Kochalski, Ş. Məhəmmədəliyev, M. Zlomislić
Defenders: Dani Bolt, J. Gnali, A. Hüseynov, B. Hüseynov, Bruno Langa, Matheus Silva, K. Medina, B. Mustafazadə, S. Niftiyev, B. Varkonyi
Midfielders: E. Cəfərquliyev, Č. Makreckis, H. Jabrayilzade, H. Ibrahim, M. Imamaliyev, M. Janković, Kady, Nicat Khasiyev, Samuel Lobato, Joni Montiel, Mehdi Mutallimli, Pedro Bicalho, A. Bashirov, O. Kashchuk, J. Mouaddib
Forwards: R. Cephas, Behruz Qurbanli, M. Qurbanlı, Z. Sawo, R. Almeyda

Qarabag have been consistent tactically, using a 4-2-3-1 formation in all three of their Europa League matches so far. This stability has underpinned their perfect defensive record and allowed their attacking players to flourish within a clear structure. With experienced defenders like A. Hüseynov and B. Hüseynov and a range of creative and attacking midfielders such as Kady and Joni Montiel, they are well-equipped to manage the tempo of the game in Sofia, protect their clean-sheet record and look for decisive moments on the counter or through controlled possession.

CSKA Sofia Team News

No significant absences reported.

Qarabag Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

CSKA Sofia:

  • None reported.

Qarabag:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag

Exactly 3 distinct betting ideas across different markets:

  • Result Tip: Qarabag Draw No Bet. Prediction models give CSKA Sofia only a 10% chance of winning, with Qarabag and the draw each at 45%. The 1X2 odds range from around 2.25 to 2.40 for Qarabag and 2.90 to 3.15 for CSKA, implying roughly 41–44% for an away win versus 31–35% for a home win. Backing Qarabag with draw protection aligns with both the probabilities and their superior defensive record.
  • Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals. The first leg finished 0-0, and Qarabag have yet to concede in 3 Europa League matches, while CSKA’s head-to-head home friendlies against Qarabag both ended 0-1. With Qarabag’s defence rated at the maximum in recent comparison indices and the tie finely poised, a low-scoring game is more likely than a shootout. Use the under-goals market at available prices from your bookmaker.
  • Value Tip: Draw in 90 minutes. Both the prediction percentages and the odds suggest the draw is undervalued. The model assigns 45% to a stalemate, while the draw odds range roughly from 3.10 to 3.30, implying about 30–32% probability. Given Qarabag’s defensive strength, CSKA’s unbeaten run and the 0-0 first leg, backing the draw offers attractive value in what looks like another very tight contest.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

Related News