CSKA Sofia vs OFI Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

CSKA Sofia host OFI at National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia on 27 August 2026 in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League Play-offs tie. After a bruising 3-0 defeat in Heraklion a week earlier, the Bulgarian side face a steep uphill battle to overturn the deficit in front of their own fans.

For CSKA Sofia, this is a test of character as much as quality. Their broader Europa League campaign has been solid, with four wins from seven matches and a positive goal difference overall, but the heavy loss in Greece has put them on the brink. OFI, meanwhile, arrive in Sofia with a commanding aggregate lead and the confidence of a perfect start to continental action, having scored three and conceded none so far.

With Europa League group-stage football on the line, this Play-offs clash carries major sporting and financial stakes. CSKA must chase goals without collapsing defensively again, while OFI can afford to be pragmatic, protect their advantage, and look to strike on the counter.

CSKA Sofia vs OFI Key Stats

• CSKA Sofia have played 7 Europa League matches this campaign, winning 4, drawing 1 and losing 2, with 10 goals scored and 9 conceded.
• The only previous meeting on record between these sides saw OFI beat CSKA Sofia 3-0 in Heraklion on 20 August 2026.
• In Europa League tournament statistics, CSKA Sofia have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches, while OFI have 1 clean sheet from their single match.

CSKA Sofia vs OFI — Tale of the Tape

• Position: — vs —
• Points: — vs —
• Goals For: 10 (CSKA Sofia tournament total) vs 3 (OFI tournament total)
• Goals Against: 9 (CSKA Sofia tournament total) vs 0 (OFI tournament total)
• Clean Sheets: 3 (CSKA Sofia tournament statistics) vs 1 (OFI tournament statistics)

Formal group or league standings are not available for this Play-offs tie, but the wider Europa League numbers still paint a clear picture. Across 7 matches, CSKA Sofia have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, suggesting a side that is competitive but far from watertight, particularly given their recent 3-0 loss away to OFI.

OFI’s sample size is small but impressive: one Europa League match, a 3-0 home win, with an average of 3.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded. Their early tournament profile hints at a team capable of striking efficiently while maintaining defensive discipline, supported by a clean sheet and a 100% penalty conversion rate in that match.

CSKA Sofia vs OFI Key Matchups

Bruno Jordão vs Aitor Cantalapiedra

Bruno Jordão has been one of CSKA Sofia’s key midfield contributors in the Europa League. In 2 appearances, he has scored 1 goal, making him a notable source of attacking threat from midfield. His ability to arrive late in the box and contribute on the scoresheet will be vital as CSKA chase multiple goals in Sofia.

On the other side, Aitor Cantalapiedra stands out in OFI’s midfield group as an experienced creative presence. While individual Europa League goal or assist numbers are not specified for him, his role as a midfielder and his age profile suggest he is likely to be central to OFI’s build-up and counter-attacking play. The battle between Jordão’s forward surges and Cantalapiedra’s control and transitions in midfield could heavily influence which team dictates tempo.

Pastor vs A. Leya

Defender Pastor has quietly become a key figure for CSKA Sofia in Europe. In 2 appearances he has registered 1 assist, underlining his value in advancing play from the back or wide areas. With CSKA needing to attack, his forward runs and delivery will be important, but he also has to remain solid defensively after the side conceded 3 in Heraklion.

For OFI, attacker A. Leya is a focal point in the forward line. While specific Europa League goal numbers are not listed for him individually, OFI’s 3-0 win and their 3.0 goals-per-game average suggest the forwards are in good shape. Leya’s movement against Pastor and the rest of the CSKA back line will be critical, especially in transition when OFI look to exploit the spaces left by a CSKA side forced to commit numbers forward.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These clubs are unfamiliar foes on the European stage, with only one recent meeting to draw on. That first leg in Greece has, however, set the tone for this tie.

• 20 August 2026: OFI 3-0 CSKA Sofia (UEFA Europa League)

CSKA Sofia vs OFI Prediction

Stats suggest a complex dynamic for the return leg. CSKA Sofia have generally been competitive in the Europa League, with 4 wins in 7 matches and three clean sheets, but their defensive record shows vulnerabilities, particularly late in games where a significant share of goals conceded has come in the final 15 minutes. They must chase the game from the outset, which could expose those same frailties again.

OFI arrive with a 3-0 aggregate lead and strong recent indicators: a 100% record in Europa League so far, 3 goals scored, none conceded, and a solid 3-4-3 structure used in their only match. The prediction model slightly favours OFI to progress, assigning them a 45% chance of winning the match outright, with a 45% probability of a draw and only 10% for a CSKA Sofia victory. That distribution reflects both OFI’s first-leg dominance and the tactical advantage of playing with a big cushion.

Given CSKA’s need to attack and OFI’s comfort in a compact, counter-attacking setup, the match could see CSKA controlling possession and territory, but OFI creating high-quality chances on the break. However, the market strongly backs a CSKA win on the night, even if that may not be enough to overturn the tie.

Predicted Score: CSKA Sofia 1-1 OFI

CSKA Sofia Recent Form

Across their Europa League campaign, CSKA Sofia’s recent tournament form has been mixed but generally positive: 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 7 matches. They average 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, with 3 clean sheets but also 2 matches where they failed to score. Their biggest wins include a 3-2 home victory and a 3-0 success away, yet the 3-0 defeat to OFI in the first leg highlights how quickly things can unravel against sharp opposition.

OFI Recent Form

OFI’s recent tournament form is short but flawless: 1 match, 1 win, 3 goals scored and none conceded. They have a 100% record in the Europa League so far, a clean sheet, and a perfect penalty record (1 scored from 1). While the sample size is limited, their 3-0 victory over CSKA Sofia suggests they are well-prepared tactically and physically for this Play-offs tie.

CSKA Sofia Possible Starting Lineup

GK: D. Evtimov; Defenders: J. Gbamin, Adrián Lapeña, Pastor, Á. Martino; Midfielders: Bruno Jordão, M. Ebong, S. Sensi, M. Brahimi; Forwards: S. Godoy, I. Pittas.

CSKA Sofia have a deep squad with multiple options in defence and midfield. Pastor offers attacking width from the back, while Bruno Jordão and S. Sensi provide technical quality in central areas. Up front, I. Pittas and S. Godoy give them presence and movement. Tactically, CSKA have used several formations in the Europa League — including 4-3-3, 4-3-1-2 and 3-5-2 — but needing goals, a more aggressive 4-3-3 or 4-1-4-1 setup is likely, pushing full-backs high and relying on midfield runners to overload OFI’s back line.

OFI Possible Starting Lineup

GK: N. Christogeorgos; Defenders: L. Dickmann, D. Nikolaou, A. Poungouras; Midfielders: N. Athanasiou, A. Bouchalakis, Z. Karachalios, Aitor Cantalapiedra; Forwards: T. Fountas, A. Leya, G. Theodosoulakis.

OFI’s Europa League data points to a 3-4-3 base shape, which suits a counter-attacking approach with width and three central defenders. A. Bouchalakis and Z. Karachalios offer stability in midfield, while Aitor Cantalapiedra can link play and create chances from wide or half-space positions. Up front, T. Fountas and A. Leya provide mobility and finishing, ideal for exploiting the spaces that a chasing CSKA side are likely to leave.

CSKA Sofia Team News

No significant absences reported.

OFI Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

CSKA Sofia:

• None reported.

OFI:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: CSKA Sofia vs OFI

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: CSKA Sofia to win the match. The prediction model gives CSKA only a 10% chance compared to 45% for both draw and OFI, but the betting markets strongly disagree: home odds range from 1.58 to 1.65, implying roughly a 60.6%–63.3% chance of a CSKA win. With OFI defending a big lead and potentially less urgent, CSKA’s home advantage and overall stronger Europa League volume of results make them a justified favourite on the night. This is a short-price, lower-risk selection.
• Goals Tip: Under 3.5 total goals. CSKA’s Europa League matches average 2.7 goals (10 scored, 9 conceded in 7 games), while OFI’s only tie ended 3-0. With OFI likely to sit deep to protect a 3-goal cushion and CSKA wary of conceding an away goal that would effectively kill the tie, a more controlled encounter is plausible. Look for an Under 3.5 line where available; check your bookmaker for specific odds, as they are not listed in the current data.
• Value Tip: Draw in the Match Winner market. The model assigns a 45% probability to a draw, matching OFI’s win probability and far exceeding CSKA’s 10%. Yet bookmakers price the draw between 3.82 and 4.00, implying only about a 25.0%–26.2% chance. That discrepancy suggests the draw is the value side, especially given OFI can afford to play conservatively and would gladly accept a stalemate to progress.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.