CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round Preview

On 13 August 2026, under the lights of National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia, CSKA Sofia return home with a commanding advantage and a chance to finish the job against Maccabi Tel Aviv in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round. After a stunning 3-0 away win in the first leg, the Bulgarian side stand on the brink of the play-off round, while the Israeli club arrive in Sofia needing something close to a miracle to turn the tie around.

Season Context

For CSKA Sofia, this Europa journey has started almost perfectly. Across 5 matches in the competition, they have remained unbeaten with 4 wins and 1 draw, scoring 9 goals and conceding only 3. That blend of cutting edge in attack (1.8 goals per game) and resilience at the back (0.6 conceded per game) has put them in a strong position not just in this tie, but in the broader quest to reach the group stage.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s path has been more volatile but still dangerous. In their 3 Europa League fixtures so far, they have 2 wins and 1 defeat, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. Their numbers show a side capable of explosive attacking bursts (2.0 goals per game) yet still searching for defensive consistency, especially after that heavy 0-3 “home” defeat to CSKA Sofia in Batumi.

Form & Momentum

CSKA Sofia arrive in Sofia with momentum firmly on their side. Their recent Europa run reads WWDWW, a sequence that underlines both consistency and high performance (4 wins and 1 draw from 5). With 9 goals scored and only 3 conceded in that stretch, they have combined an efficient attack with a disciplined defence, making them look in control of ties rather than merely surviving them.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s recent European form is captured by the sequence WWL. Two early victories, including a ruthless 5-goal away performance, showed their attacking ceiling (6 goals in 3 matches), but the 0-3 loss to CSKA Sofia exposed vulnerabilities when faced with a well-organised opponent (3 goals conceded, all in “home” fixtures so far). They come into this second leg needing to rediscover the intensity of those opening wins while tightening up at the back.

Head-to-Head Patterns

The history between these two clubs is short but already sharply defined. Their only recorded recent meeting came on 6 August 2026 at Batumi Arena, a neutral venue, in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round. On that day, Maccabi Tel Aviv were designated as the home side but were comprehensively beaten 0-3 by CSKA Sofia (UEFA Europa League, season 2026, August 2026). That result set the tone for this tie: CSKA Sofia clinical and compact, Maccabi Tel Aviv forced to chase.

Tactical Preview

CSKA Sofia’s European campaign so far paints the picture of a tactically flexible and well-balanced side. They have used a range of systems — from 4-3-1-2 and 4-3-3 to 3-5-2 and 4-1-4-1 — each deployed at least once across their 5 Europa fixtures. That variety suggests a coach willing to adapt shapes to the opponent while maintaining core principles: a solid defensive block (only 3 goals conceded in 5 matches) and a steady attacking output (9 goals scored). At home, they have already shown they can both score and absorb pressure, with 4 goals for and 2 against in 2 home fixtures.

Personnel-wise, CSKA Sofia have a deep and versatile squad. Defenders like Adrián Lapeña, Á. Martino, Pastor and Facundo Santiago Rodríguez give options for both back four and back three structures. In midfield, the presence of S. Sensi, Bruno Jordão, M. Ebong and M. Brahimi offers a mix of control, ball-carrying and pressing energy. Up front, options such as I. Pittas, S. Godoy, J. Zwarts and K. Dodaj provide different profiles to attack space or hold the ball, which is vital when managing a lead as significant as 3-0.

Maccabi Tel Aviv, by contrast, have alternated mainly between 3-5-2, 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 across their 3 Europa fixtures, pointing to a side that can morph between a more conservative, wing-back-heavy shape and a front-foot attacking structure. Their 6 goals scored include a standout 0-5 away win, underlining how dangerous they can be when transitions click and their forwards find space. Yet all 3 goals conceded have come in their two “home” matches, indicating that when they are forced to take initiative, gaps appear (1.5 goals conceded per home game).

In Sofia, Maccabi Tel Aviv are almost certain to push higher and earlier. Attackers such as E. Sokler, Y. Malede, Orel Baaia and E. Madmon, supported by creative midfielders like Dor Peretz, D. Glazer and K. Belić, will need to be aggressive between the lines to unsettle CSKA Sofia’s structure. But that ambition will leave space behind for CSKA’s forwards and wide runners to exploit, especially if the Bulgarians opt for a counter-attacking setup out of a compact mid-block.

Discipline could also be a subtle factor. CSKA Sofia’s card profile shows they can pick up bookings in the later phases of matches, while Maccabi Tel Aviv have seen their cautions clustered around the end of first halves and late in games. In a tie where frustration may grow for the visitors and game management becomes key for the hosts, this could influence the tempo and risk-taking on both sides.

Statistical Snapshot

• Competition: UEFA Europa League, season 2026 — 13 August 2026.
• Venue: National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia.
• Prediction: Win or draw — Double chance : CSKA Sofia or draw.
• Win Probabilities: Home 45% / Draw 45% / Away 10%.
• Model: CSKA Sofia 59.3 — Maccabi Tel Aviv 40.7.

Betting Verdict

The prediction models lean clearly towards CSKA Sofia avoiding defeat, with a double chance on the home side or draw backed by a 45% home win probability and 45% draw probability, against just 10% for an away victory. The comparison model also favours CSKA Sofia overall (59.3 vs 40.7), reflecting their unbeaten run and superior goal balance in Europe so far (9 scored, 3 conceded across 5 matches) as well as the emphatic 3-0 first-leg win. Bookmaker odds for a home win generally sit around 1.98–2.14, implying an approximate probability in the low-to-mid 40s, which aligns closely with the prediction data. Given CSKA Sofia’s strong form and the psychological weight on Maccabi Tel Aviv to chase a three-goal deficit away from home, the most logical betting angle is to side with CSKA Sofia on the double chance, with the home win itself also offering reasonable value for those expecting the Bulgarians to finish the tie in style.