Cremonese vs Pisa: Late-Season Serie A Clash Analysis

Cremonese host Pisa at Stadio Giovanni Zini in a late-season Serie A clash where both sides are already deeply stuck in the relegation zone. Cremonese are 18th with 28 points from 35 matches (6-10-19, 27:53), while Pisa sit bottom in 20th with 18 points (2-12-21, 25:63). Despite the table suggesting a weak home favourite, the betting market has gone very strong on Cremonese, pricing them as clear odds-on favourites.

Form-wise, both teams are struggling, but Cremonese have at least shown a higher ceiling. Their league form string is mixed and inconsistent, yet the prediction model’s comparison gives them a 100% edge on recent form versus 0% for Pisa. In the last five, both sides have scored just 2 goals and conceded 9 (0.4 for, 1.8 against on average), but Pisa’s season-long profile is worse: only 2 wins in 35 league games and no away victories at all (0-8-9 away, 16:40). Cremonese, while poor, have 6 wins overall and a slightly more competitive away record; at home they are 2-7-8 with 14:25, which is weak but still better than Pisa’s travel numbers.

Offensively, Cremonese average 0.8 goals per game (27 in 35), Pisa 0.7 (25 in 35). Defensively, Cremonese concede 1.5 per match, Pisa 1.8, with Pisa’s away defence particularly fragile at 2.4 goals conceded per away game. The prediction engine’s Poisson-based comparison still slightly favours Cremonese (55% vs 45%), but the overall model leans towards Pisa not losing: only 10% win probability is assigned to Cremonese, with 45% for the draw and 45% for Pisa. That is in stark contrast to the bookmakers, who are heavily shading the home side.

Head-to-Head Data

Head-to-head data confirms Pisa have often been the more efficient side in this matchup. On 2025-11-07 in Serie A at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa beat Cremonese 1-0. Earlier that year on 2025-05-13 in Serie B at the same venue, Pisa won 2-1. On 2024-11-03 in Serie B at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Pisa again prevailed 3-1 away. Cremonese’s recent home success in this fixture came on 2024-05-01 in Serie B, a 2-1 win at Stadio Giovanni Zini. Before that, on 2023-12-02 in Serie B at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, the sides drew 0-0. Further back, Pisa beat Cremonese 3-0 at home on 2022-03-13 in Serie B, they drew 1-1 in Cremona on 2021-10-28 in Serie B, Cremonese won 2-1 at home on 2021-02-06 in Serie B, and they drew 1-1 in Pisa on 2020-10-04 in Serie B. The 2021-07-24 1-1 at Centro Sportivo G. Paolo Marinoni was a club friendly and should not be weighed in competitive trends. Overall, Pisa have repeatedly shown they can get results both home and away against Cremonese.

Market Analysis

Turning to the market, virtually all major bookmakers make Cremonese strong favourites: home odds cluster around 1.68–1.77, draws around 3.50–4.04, and Pisa around 4.44–5.10. Implied probabilities (before margin) roughly put Cremonese in the low 60% range, the draw in the mid-20s, and Pisa in the high teens to low 20s. This is a clear disagreement with the model, which rates Cremonese at only 10% and sees draw and away win as equally likely at 45% each.

Given that clash, the most interesting angle is to follow the model-based prediction rather than the market. The official advice is “Double chance: draw or Pisa,” and the underlying numbers support the idea that Cremonese are overvalued: Pisa have dominated recent head-to-heads, Cremonese are weak at home, Pisa draw a lot away (8 away draws), and both attacks are blunt. With low scoring expected (goals projections for both listed under 1.5), backing Pisa to avoid defeat has clear value against a heavily favoured home side.