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Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Benfica welcome AZ Alkmaar to Lisbon on 28 January 2027 in the UEFA Europa League League Stage - 8, with the Portuguese side looking to extend an already impressive continental run. Although the venue name is not specified, home advantage in the Portuguese capital has been a major factor in Benfica’s strong recent European form.

In the early League Stage standings, Benfica sit 4th in the League Round group with 0 points from 0 games, while AZ Alkmaar are just ahead in 3rd, also on 0 points and yet to kick a ball in this phase. Effectively, both sides are starting from scratch in terms of points, but Benfica arrive with a clear edge in recent Europa League statistics and attacking rhythm.

With knockout qualification places ultimately on the line later in the League Stage, this fixture already feels like a tone-setter. Benfica’s recent goal glut and winning habit contrast sharply with AZ’s complete statistical blank in the competition so far this season, making this an intriguing clash of proven form versus unknown quantity.

Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Key Stats

  • Benfica have taken 4 wins, 1 draw and just 1 defeat from 6 Europa League fixtures, scoring 19 and conceding 6 in that run.
  • There are no recent head-to-head meetings between Benfica and AZ Alkmaar listed for this competition.
  • Benfica average 3.2 goals scored per Europa League match (19 in 6 games) and have kept 1 clean sheet in that span, highlighting a high-risk, high-reward attacking profile.

Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 4 vs 3
  • Points: 0 vs 0
  • Goals For: 0 vs 0
  • Goals Against: 0 vs 0
  • Clean Sheets: Benfica 1 (tournament statistics); AZ Alkmaar 0 (tournament statistics)

Standings-wise, there is almost nothing to separate the sides yet: both begin this League Stage block on 0 points and with no group goals scored or conceded. The slight numerical edge for AZ Alkmaar in rank (3rd vs Benfica’s 4th) is purely nominal at this stage and not based on on-pitch results in the League Round.

The deeper Europa League statistics, however, paint a very different picture. Across 6 matches, Benfica have been prolific, averaging 3.2 goals per game and conceding just 1.0 on average. At home, they have been particularly ruthless, scoring 14 in 3 fixtures (4.7 per game) and allowing only 2. AZ, by contrast, have no recorded fixtures, goals or defensive data in this Europa League season yet, leaving them as something of a statistical mystery heading into Lisbon.

Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Key Matchups

V. Pavlidis vs AZ Alkmaar back line

Vangelis Pavlidis has been Benfica’s standout attacking force in this Europa League campaign. The forward has 5 goals and 1 assist in just 3 appearances, making him both the competition’s leading scorer and a top contributor in assists for the club. He has also picked up 1 yellow card, underlining his combative edge in the final third.

With AZ Alkmaar yet to play a Europa League match this season, their defensive metrics are completely blank: no goals conceded, no clean sheets, and no evidence of how they cope against high-calibre attacks. That leaves Pavlidis as a major tactical headache for an untested back line, especially given Benfica’s preference for attack-minded formations such as 4-2-3-1 and 4-1-3-2.

Rafa’s creativity vs AZ Alkmaar midfield shield

Rafa has been a crucial secondary threat behind Pavlidis. In 4 Europa League appearances, the forward has scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist, offering penetration from deeper or wide positions. Crucially, he has managed this output without picking up a card, suggesting a disciplined yet incisive presence between the lines.

AZ’s midfield statistics are non-existent so far in this competition, with no recorded matches, goals or disciplinary data. That lack of evidence makes it difficult to gauge how well they can screen their defence against a mobile, technically sharp player like Rafa. If AZ’s central unit fails to track his movement, Rafa’s combination play with Pavlidis and the supporting cast could tilt the game decisively towards Benfica.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

There are no recent Europa League head-to-head fixtures between Benfica and AZ Alkmaar listed, so this encounter effectively starts with a clean slate in terms of direct history.

    Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

    All available indicators point to Benfica entering this tie as the more prepared and battle-hardened side. Their Europa League record of 4 wins from 6, combined with an attacking output of 19 goals, suggests they are already operating at a high offensive level. Their last-five metrics underline this: 18 goals scored and only 4 conceded across those 5 games, with attacking and defensive indices both strong.

    AZ Alkmaar, by contrast, are a statistical unknown in this season’s competition. With 0 games played, 0 goals scored and 0 conceded, and no recorded form string, it is impossible to draw firm conclusions about their current European level. That uncertainty is reflected in the prediction model’s probabilities, which give an evenly split 33% chance to each of home win, draw and away win. In practice, though, Benfica’s sharpness, home advantage in Lisbon and the presence of in-form forwards like Pavlidis and Rafa make the Portuguese side the more convincing pick.

    Predicted Score: Benfica 2-1 AZ Alkmaar

    Benfica Recent Form

    Benfica arrive in excellent recent Europa League form. Their broader tournament form string reads LWWDWW, meaning just one defeat in six and a run of four wins and one draw in that period. In the last five matches alone, they have scored 18 goals (3.6 per game) and conceded only 4 (0.8 per game), underlining a potent attack backed by a generally solid defence.

    AZ Alkmaar Recent Form

    AZ Alkmaar have no recorded Europa League fixtures so far this season, so there is no recent tournament form to assess. Their last-five metrics in this competition show 0 games played, 0 goals for and 0 against, leaving their current European level an open question heading into Lisbon.

    Benfica Possible Starting Lineup

    GK: A. Trubin; Defenders: C. Lenglet, A. Bah, Tomás Araújo, S. Dahl; Midfielders: Joāo Palhinha, L. Barreiro, E. Barrenechea, H. Sudakov, J. Kamiński; Forwards: V. Pavlidis, Rafa, D. Lukebakio, J. Durán, G. Prestianni.

    Benfica’s Europa League statistics suggest a preference for a back four and multiple forward options, reflected in their frequent use of 4-2-3-1 and 4-1-3-2. Pavlidis is almost certain to lead the line given his 5-goal haul, with Rafa and other creative midfielders like H. Sudakov and J. Kamiński supporting. At the back, experienced figures such as C. Lenglet and A. Bah, both ever-present in the competition, should provide stability, while Joāo Palhinha and L. Barreiro can anchor midfield. With no major absences listed, Benfica have the depth to rotate attacking options like D. Lukebakio, J. Durán and G. Prestianni without sacrificing firepower.

    AZ Alkmaar Possible Starting Lineup

    GK: R. Owusu-Oduro; Defenders: W. Goes, W. Hoedt, M. Chávez, D. Kasius; Midfielders: J. Clasie, P. Koopmeiners, D. Kwakman, K. Smit, C. Stengs; Forwards: J. Hornkamp, M. Meerdink, Weslley Patati.

    With no Europa League lineups or match statistics recorded yet, AZ Alkmaar’s probable XI must be inferred from their squad structure. They have a blend of experience and youth at the back, with W. Hoedt and M. Chávez among several defensive options. In midfield, veterans like J. Clasie and P. Koopmeiners could provide control and balance, while creative influence may come from C. Stengs and younger players such as K. Smit. Up front, J. Hornkamp and M. Meerdink look likely candidates to lead the line, supported by pace from Weslley Patati. However, the absence of any tournament data makes their tactical cohesion and effectiveness hard to project.

    Benfica Team News

    No significant absences reported.

    AZ Alkmaar Team News

    No significant absences reported.

    Injuries & Suspensions

    Benfica:

    • None reported.

    AZ Alkmaar:

    • None reported.

    Betting Tips: Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar

    Exactly 3 distinct betting angles, based purely on the available stats and probabilities:

    • Result Tip: Back Benfica Draw No Bet. The official probability block splits the outcome evenly at 33% for home, draw and away, but Benfica’s Europa League record of 4 wins from 6, plus 18 goals in their last five games, suggests they are more reliable than the raw percentages imply. With AZ Alkmaar yet to play a match in this campaign, siding with the proven home side while protecting against a draw looks the most sensible approach.
    • Goals Tip: Over 2.5 total goals. Benfica’s matches have been high scoring: they average 3.2 goals for and 1.0 against per game, and 4 of their 6 Europa League fixtures have gone over 2.5 goals. Given their attacking intent and the likelihood that AZ will need to open up at some stage, a game with at least three goals is a logical play.
    • Value Tip: V. Pavlidis to score anytime. With 5 goals and 1 assist in just 3 Europa League appearances, Pavlidis is clearly Benfica’s primary finisher and set-piece threat. He also features at the top of the yellow and red card rankings without having been sent off, indicating heavy involvement in duels and penalty-area action. Against an AZ defence with no recorded Europa League minutes this season, his goalscoring form offers standout value in the player markets.

    Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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