Anderlecht vs PAOK Prediction: Preview and Betting Tips

Anderlecht and PAOK meet at Lotto Park in Anderlecht on 13 August 2026 in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. With a place in the play-off round on the line, this clash in Belgium comes just a week after their tight first encounter in Thessaloniki.

Anderlecht travel back home with a precious 1-0 advantage from Toumba Stadium, where they struck once before half-time and managed the game well to keep PAOK at bay. The Belgian side remain unbeaten in Europa League action so far this season and now have the chance to finish the job in front of their own fans.

PAOK, meanwhile, must overturn that deficit away from home. They have shown both attacking firepower and defensive vulnerability in their opening three Europa League matches, and now need at least one goal at Lotto Park to stay alive. With both teams averaging 1.7 goals scored per game in the competition, this tie is finely poised for a tense second leg.

Anderlecht vs PAOK Key Stats

• Across 3 Europa League matches this season, Anderlecht are unbeaten with 2 wins, 1 draw, scoring 5 and conceding just 2.
• The only previous meeting between the sides in this tie ended PAOK 0-1 Anderlecht on 6 August 2026 in Thessaloniki.
• In their Europa League campaign so far, both Anderlecht and PAOK have scored 5 goals in 3 matches, an average of 1.7 goals per game each.

Anderlecht vs PAOK — Tale of the Tape

• Position: Not available vs Not available
• Points: Not available vs Not available
• Goals For: Not available vs Not available
• Goals Against: Not available vs Not available
• Clean Sheets: Anderlecht 1 (tournament statistics), PAOK 1 (tournament statistics)

Traditional group-stage style standings are not yet in play at this qualifying phase, but the early-round statistics still offer a clear picture of how each side is shaping up. Anderlecht have played 3 Europa League matches, winning 2 and drawing 1, with a strong defensive record of just 2 goals conceded and one clean sheet. Their biggest win so far was a 3-1 home victory, underlining their threat at Lotto Park.

PAOK also come into the second leg with 2 wins and 1 defeat from 3 matches, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Their best result was a 2-0 home win, while a 2-3 away success shows they can score on their travels but are not entirely secure at the back. Both teams have identical scoring output so far, but Anderlecht’s slightly tighter defence and home advantage tilt the balance marginally in their favour.

Anderlecht vs PAOK Key Matchups

Anderlecht attack vs PAOK defence

Without individual scorer data, the collective numbers tell the story. Anderlecht have scored 5 goals in 3 Europa League games, averaging 3.0 goals at home and 1.0 away. Their biggest home win (3-1) highlights how dangerous they can be when they get on the front foot at Lotto Park. With no failures to score in any of their matches so far, they are consistently creating and converting chances.

PAOK’s defence has conceded 3 goals in 3 matches, including 2 in their only away game so far. On average they allow 1.0 goal per match, but that rises to 2.0 away from home. The first leg ended 1-0 to Anderlecht in Greece, and PAOK will need to tighten up significantly to avoid giving the Belgians an early away-goal style cushion in this second leg.

PAOK attack vs Anderlecht defence

PAOK’s attacking output mirrors Anderlecht’s: 5 goals in 3 games, with an impressive 3.0 goals per match in their sole away outing (a 2-3 win). They have failed to score once in the competition, but when they do click, they can be explosive, as shown by that high-scoring away win.

Anderlecht’s defence, however, has been one of the most solid aspects of their campaign. They have conceded only 2 goals in 3 matches, an average of 0.7 per game, and just 1 at home. Their only clean sheet came away at PAOK in the first leg, a significant psychological edge. If Anderlecht maintain that level of organisation, PAOK will find it difficult to score the two goals they may need to progress.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

This tie is a fresh matchup in European competition, with only one recent meeting on record between the sides — the first leg of this qualifier.

• 06 August 2026: PAOK 0-1 Anderlecht (UEFA Europa League)

Anderlecht vs PAOK Prediction

Stats suggest a very finely balanced contest. The prediction model gives Anderlecht a 45% chance of winning in 90 minutes, with the draw also at 45% and PAOK at just 10%. That reflects Anderlecht’s unbeaten start, their away win in Greece, and their strong defensive numbers. At the same time, the high draw probability underlines how tight this could be, especially with PAOK needing to chase the game but also wary of conceding an away goal in the tie context.

Both teams average 1.7 goals scored per match in the Europa League this season, and both have conceded at or below 1 goal per game. Anderlecht’s home scoring rate (3.0 per match) suggests they will create enough to find the net, while PAOK’s need to attack should open up space at both ends. A cautious, tactical first half could give way to a more open second period as the visitors push forward.

Predicted Score: Anderlecht 1-1 PAOK

Anderlecht Recent Form

In Europa League action this season, Anderlecht are unbeaten with a record of 2 wins and 1 draw across 3 matches. They have scored 5 goals (1.7 per game) and conceded just 2 (0.7 per game), with one clean sheet. At home they have been particularly strong, winning their only match 3-1. Overall, their recent form indicates a well-balanced side, solid defensively and efficient in attack.

PAOK Recent Form

PAOK’s Europa League form shows 2 wins and 1 defeat from 3 matches. They have also scored 5 goals (1.7 per match) but conceded 3 (1.0 per match). At home they have a 2-0 win and a 0-1 loss, while their single away game produced a 3-2 victory, underlining both their attacking threat and defensive frailty on the road. Their recent form is positive overall, but the first-leg defeat to Anderlecht raises questions about how they cope against organised opposition.

Anderlecht Possible Starting Lineup

With no confirmed lineups for this fixture, likely key players for Anderlecht based on the current squad include:

GK: C. Coosemans or J. Heekeren
Defenders: L. Augustinsson, G. Biancone, L. Hey, Z. Keita, M. N'Diaye, L. Pétrot, K. Sardella
Midfielders: L. Ambros, I. Camara, K. Nga, N. Saliba, M. Stroeykens, O. Antman, E. Llansana, T. Degreef, C. Huerta, Jayden Onia Seke, A. Maamar, N. Kalonji Kafumpata
Forwards: A. Bertaccini, M. Cvetkovic, E. Dao, D. Sikan, N. Cobiella

Anderlecht have alternated between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3 in their three Europa League matches, using 4-4-2 twice. That suggests a preference for a solid back four with width from midfield and two central forwards. Their strong defensive record and lack of failures to score indicate a balanced approach that is unlikely to change for this decisive home leg.

PAOK Possible Starting Lineup

PAOK’s likely key players from the current squad pool include:

GK: J. Pavlenka, A. Tsiftsis, D. Monastirlis
Defenders: A. Baba, Elustondo, P. Hatzidiakos, J. Gómez, J. Kenny, L. Lyratzis, G. Michailidis, G. Taylor, K. Thymianis, D. Bataoulas, G. Kosidis, D. Kottas, G. Sideras
Midfielders: M. Camara, K. Despodov, G. Konstantelias, S. Meïté, D. Pelkas, B. Santamaría, Taison, D. Tsopouroglou, C. Zafeiris, A. Živković, D. Chatsidis
Forwards: T. Ali, M. Balde, D. Berdos, B. Dunga, A. Jeremejeff, A. Mythou

PAOK have consistently lined up in a 4-2-3-1 across all three Europa League fixtures. This structure supports their attacking output of 5 goals but has not fully protected them defensively, especially away from home. Expect them to maintain the same shape but with a more aggressive posture, as they need to chase the aggregate scoreline in Belgium.

Anderlecht Team News

No significant absences reported.

PAOK Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Anderlecht:

• None reported.

PAOK:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Anderlecht vs PAOK

Below are three data-driven betting angles for this Europa League qualifier:

• Result Tip: Double chance Anderlecht or Draw. The prediction model gives Anderlecht a 45% chance to win and the draw also at 45%, with PAOK at just 10%. The market, however, makes PAOK a slight favourite: away odds range from 2.55 to 2.68 (implied probability roughly 37.3% to 39.2%), while Anderlecht’s home odds are between 2.80 and 2.94 (about 34.0% to 35.7%). Given Anderlecht’s unbeaten record and the 1-0 first-leg win, backing them not to lose (via double chance in a combined market or builder) looks safer than taking either side outright.
• Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. Both teams average 1.7 goals scored per game in the Europa League, and PAOK’s only away match finished 3-2. Anderlecht’s only home game ended 3-1. Although the first leg was tight at 1-0, the aggregate context should force PAOK to open up, increasing goal expectation. Look for an Over 1.5 goals line at standard match odds from the available bookmakers.
• Value Tip: Draw in the Match Winner market. The draw is priced between 3.00 and 3.15, implying a probability range of about 31.7% to 33.3%. The prediction model, however, assigns the draw a 45% chance. With both teams level on overall attacking output (5 goals each) and Anderlecht already holding a narrow aggregate lead, a cagey, balanced 90 minutes is plausible. That gap between market pricing and model probability suggests the stalemate offers the best value angle.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.