Philadelphia Union II vs New York City II Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Philadelphia Union II welcome New York City II to Subaru Park on 14 June 2026 in MLS Next Pro Group Stage action, with both sides tightly bunched in the upper half of the standings. The hosts sit on 18 points from 13 matches, while the visitors have 15 points from 11, setting up a key early-summer clash in the race for playoff positioning.

Union II have been inconsistent, reflected in a league form line of “LLWLOL”, but they have still managed six wins and a positive goal difference. New York City II arrive with a more compact schedule so far and a form string of “LWWLW”, suggesting a higher recent ceiling but also volatility. With Subaru Park again the stage, this fixture continues a rivalry that has produced high drama and goals in recent MLS Next Pro seasons.

Stats suggest a tight encounter, but the historical head-to-head and predictive metrics lean towards Philadelphia Union II. Double-chance angles, low-goals markets, and the broader context of MLS Next Pro betting will all be in sharp focus for punters assessing this matchup.

Philadelphia Union II vs New York City II Key Stats

• Philadelphia Union II have taken 18 points from 13 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 14 in league play.
• Philadelphia Union II beat New York City II 4-3 at Subaru Park in MLS Next Pro on 5 October 2025.
• Philadelphia Union II have kept 2 clean sheets this campaign, while New York City II have managed 1.

Philadelphia Union II vs New York City II — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 5 vs 6
• Points: 18 vs 15
• Goals For: 15 vs 15
• Goals Against: 14 vs 19
• Clean Sheets: Philadelphia Union II 2; New York City II 1

In the league table, Philadelphia Union II hold a narrow edge: 18 points from 13 matches and a goal difference of +1 (15 scored, 14 conceded). New York City II trail by three points but have played two games fewer, with 15 points from 11 outings and a goal difference of -4 (15 scored, 19 conceded). That gives the visitors a slightly higher points-per-game rate but also highlights their defensive vulnerability.

At home, Union II have been streaky but capable, winning 4 and losing 4 of their 8 league fixtures at Subaru Park, with 11 goals scored and 8 conceded. New York City II’s away record is more concerning: just 1 win and 4 defeats from 5 road games, with 6 goals scored and 8 allowed. Clean-sheet numbers underline the marginal defensive edge for the hosts, who have 2 shutouts to City II’s 1, suggesting Philadelphia are marginally more solid at the back despite their patchy recent form.

Philadelphia Union II vs New York City II Key Matchups

Attacking Units vs Defences

Without individual scorer or assist tallies available, the collective profiles tell the story. Philadelphia Union II average 1.2 goals per match overall, with 11 of their 16 goals in all league fixtures coming at home at an average of 1.4 per game. New York City II have been slightly more potent overall at 1.5 goals per match, boosted by a strong home output of 1.7, while still managing 1.2 goals per game away.

Defensively, Union II concede 1.2 goals per match, with 1.1 at home, while City II ship 1.8 per game both home and away. That contrast sets up a key battle: Philadelphia’s balanced attack against a New York City II defence that has been leaky throughout the campaign, particularly in the later stages of matches.

Late-Game Resilience vs Late-Game Fragility

Time-segment stats highlight another crucial dynamic. Philadelphia Union II concede a significant share of goals between minutes 76-90, where 30.77% of their goals against have arrived. New York City II are even more vulnerable late on: 30.00% of their conceded goals come between 61-75 minutes and 25.00% between 76-90. Both sides have a tendency to be involved in matches that open up in the final third of the game.

From an attacking perspective, New York City II are particularly dangerous between 61-75 minutes, scoring 28.57% of their goals in that window, while Philadelphia spread their scoring more evenly across the 16-75-minute range. This suggests a contest where momentum swings in the second half could be decisive, with both teams capable of scoring and conceding late.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

This fixture has become one of MLS Next Pro’s more entertaining matchups, with Philadelphia Union II enjoying a strong recent record. Across their most recent clashes, Union II have consistently found ways to score, particularly at Subaru Park, while New York City II have occasionally struck back with home wins of their own.

• 5 October 2025: Philadelphia Union II 4-3 New York City II (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 39)
• 26 July 2025: New York City II 0-2 Philadelphia Union II (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 26)
• 23 April 2025: New York City II 1-4 Philadelphia Union II (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 8)
• 20 October 2024: Philadelphia Union II 1-0 New York City II (MLS Next Pro, Conference - Quarter-finals)
• 23 September 2024: Philadelphia Union II 4-3 New York City II (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 38)

Philadelphia Union II vs New York City II Prediction

Analysis points to a finely balanced contest, but with a clear tilt towards the hosts. The prediction metrics assign Philadelphia Union II a 45% chance of victory and New York City II just 10%, with the draw also at 45%. That aligns with the head-to-head pattern, where Union II have dominated recent meetings, especially at Subaru Park, and with New York City II’s poor away record.

However, both teams’ scoring and conceding profiles, plus a history of high-scoring clashes (notably 4-3 home wins for Philadelphia on 5 October 2025 and 23 September 2024), suggest that while the underlying advice leans towards a cautious double chance on the hosts or draw, a narrow, low-scoring home success is a plausible outcome given the conservative goal projections.

Predicted Score: Philadelphia Union II 1-0 New York City II

Philadelphia Union II League Form

LLWLOL

New York City II League Form

LWWLW

Philadelphia Union II Possible Starting Lineup

Pierce Holbrook; A. Craig, J. Griffin, L. Harrington, K. Moore; O. Benitez, M. Berthe, Paco Dadi, K. LeBlanc; Stas Kornzeniowski, Sal Olivas.

Union II have a youthful but deep squad, particularly in defence and midfield, with multiple options at centre-back and across the engine room. The presence of several attackers such as Stas Kornzeniowski and Sal Olivas gives them flexibility to set up either with a lone striker supported by wide forwards or a more traditional front two. With no confirmed absences, the coaching staff can tailor their shape to exploit New York City II’s defensive frailties, likely favouring a balanced 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 designed to control central areas and protect against counter-attacks.

New York City II Possible Starting Lineup

T. Romero; Nico Cavallo, João Loiola, Maxwell Murray, K. Smith; Jacob Arroyave, C. Flax, Musu, K. Pierre; M. Jones, E. Samb.

New York City II’s squad blend of experience and youth allows for an aggressive, front-foot setup. With multiple midfielders like C. Flax and Musu and forwards such as M. Jones and E. Samb, City II can field a side capable of sustaining attacks but must balance that against a back line that has conceded 20 goals in 11 league matches. An away configuration that leans towards 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 seems likely, aiming to press in midfield while trying to shore up the channels that opponents have frequently exploited.

Philadelphia Union II Team News

No significant absences reported.

New York City II Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Philadelphia Union II:

• None reported.

New York City II:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Philadelphia Union II vs New York City II

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Philadelphia Union II in the double chance (home or draw). The prediction model gives the hosts a 45% win probability and the draw another 45%, with New York City II at just 10%. Combined with Union II’s strong recent head-to-head record and City II’s 1 win in 5 away league games, the home-or-draw angle is the most logical result market position, even without specific prices listed.
• Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals. Despite some high-scoring head-to-heads historically, current-season averages are more modest: both sides sit around 1.2–1.5 goals scored per game, and the conservative goal projection for this fixture points towards a tighter contest. Philadelphia’s home goals-against average of 1.1 and their 2 clean sheets suggest they can keep this relatively controlled.
• Value Tip: Philadelphia Union II to win by exactly one goal. With both teams’ league goal differences close (Union II +1, City II -4) and the predicted edge for the hosts, a narrow margin of victory stands out. City II score regularly enough (1.5 per match overall) to stay competitive, but their defensive record and away losses point to a scenario where Philadelphia edge a tight game, making a one-goal home win an appealing higher-risk, higher-reward angle.

How to Watch Philadelphia Union II vs New York City II

Broadcast coverage varies by region. General guide:

• Spain: Movistar LaLiga
• UK: Premier Sports
• Australia: beIN Sports
• India: FanCode
• MENA: beIN Sports
• South America: ESPN / Disney+
• Africa: SuperSport

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.