North Texas vs St. Louis City II Prediction: Preview and Betting Tips

North Texas welcome St. Louis City II to Choctaw Stadium in MLS Next Pro Group Stage action on 5 July 2026, with both sides eyeing crucial points in the Frontier Division race. The hosts sit mid-pack in the divisional standings, while the visitors are pushing towards the top end and the promotion playoff spots.

North Texas are 5th in the Frontier Division on 19 points from 14 matches, with a positive goal difference but a wildly inconsistent run of results. St. Louis City II arrive in Arlington in much stronger overall shape: 3rd in the Frontier Division and already on 29 points from 16 games, they also sit 5th in the Eastern Conference table, currently tracking towards the MLS Next Pro playoffs.

This fixture has quietly become one of the more intriguing MLS Next Pro matchups, with a rich recent head-to-head history and contrasting styles. With North Texas vs St. Louis City II prediction and betting tips in focus, this clash should again offer goals and drama as the hosts look to respond to their 2-0 defeat at CITYPARK on 30 May 2026.

North Texas vs St. Louis City II Key Stats

• North Texas have 19 points from 14 matches (6 wins, 8 defeats, 0 draws) with a 23:20 goal record in the standings.
• St. Louis City II have won 4 of the last 5 meetings in all MLS Next Pro competitions, including a 2-0 home win on 30 May 2026.
• St. Louis City II have scored 31 goals in 16 MLS Next Pro 2026 fixtures (1.9 per game), while North Texas average 1.8 goals scored per match across 14 games.

North Texas vs St. Louis City II — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 5 vs 3
• Points: 19 vs 29
• Goals For: 23 vs 28
• Goals Against: 20 vs 25
• Clean Sheets: North Texas 1 (tournament statistics), St. Louis City II 4 (tournament statistics)

In the Frontier Division standings, North Texas are 5th with 19 points from 14 matches, having scored 23 and conceded 20. They have been either winning or losing – no draws at all – which underlines their volatility. At home they have 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games, scoring 12 and conceding 8.

St. Louis City II are 3rd in the Frontier Division on 29 points from 16 games, with 28 goals scored and 25 conceded. Their record of 10 wins and 6 losses, again with no draws, shows a high-ceiling, high-risk profile. They are also 5th in the Eastern Conference on the same points and goal difference, currently in a promotion playoff position, and have been more consistent than North Texas across a larger sample of fixtures.

North Texas vs St. Louis City II Key Matchups

North Texas attack vs St. Louis City II defence

Without individual top scorers or assist data available, this matchup is best read through team profiles. North Texas average 1.8 goals per game across 14 fixtures, with 13 goals at home at a strong 2.6 per match. Their biggest home win has been 5-1, and they have failed to score only once at Choctaw Stadium. However, they also concede 1.8 goals per home game and have just 1 clean sheet overall, indicating a very open style.

St. Louis City II’s defence has kept 4 clean sheets in 16 matches (3 at home, 1 away) but concedes 1.7 goals per game overall and 2.0 per away match. They have been particularly vulnerable in the 61–75 minute window, where a significant share of their goals conceded occur. If North Texas can keep the game tight into the second half, their aggressive home attack could exploit these soft spots.

St. Louis City II attack vs North Texas defence

St. Louis City II’s attack is one of the more potent in MLS Next Pro this season, with 31 goals in 16 games and an average of 1.9 per match. At home they average 2.3 goals per game, and even away they manage 1.6. Their biggest wins include 4-0 at home and 2-0 away, showing they can control games in both settings.

North Texas concede 1.6 goals per match overall and 1.8 at home, with a noticeable spread of goals allowed across all phases of the game. They have conceded in 13 of 14 fixtures and kept only 1 clean sheet. Against a St. Louis City II side that has repeatedly found ways to score in this head-to-head, the defensive unit of North Texas will be under sustained pressure.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

The recent head-to-head between North Texas and St. Louis City II has been lively and often high-scoring, with both sides enjoying spells of dominance. St. Louis City II have had the upper hand in the most recent clashes, but North Texas have produced some big home wins in this series as well.

• 30 May 2026: St. Louis City II 2-0 North Texas (MLS Next Pro, Group Stage)
• 17 August 2025: North Texas 1-3 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 30)
• 5 June 2025: St. Louis City II 2-0 North Texas (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 16)
• 10 March 2025: North Texas 0-3 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 1)
• 3 November 2024: North Texas 3-0 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro, Conference - Finals)

North Texas vs St. Louis City II Prediction

Stats suggest a very balanced encounter despite St. Louis City II’s superior league position and dominant recent head-to-head run. The prediction model gives North Texas a 35% chance of winning, the draw also at 35%, and St. Louis City II at 30%. That reflects the strong home profile of North Texas and their attacking numbers at Choctaw Stadium, even though St. Louis City II have won the last three league meetings.

North Texas have been streaky, with their recent form string mixing losses and wins, while St. Louis City II have a longer-term record of 10 wins from 16 but have also hit patches of defeats. Given the lack of draws for either side this season, something may have to give here, but the probabilities point to a tight contest where the hosts are slightly favoured not to lose.

Predicted Score: North Texas 2-1 St. Louis City II

North Texas Recent Form

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St. Louis City II Recent Form

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North Texas Possible Starting Lineup

GK: B. Thompson; Defenders: Alvaro Augusto, J. Biggar, Leandro, Enzo Newman; Midfielders: F. Aroyameh, N. James, M. Luccin, T. Ospina; Forwards: E. Nys, Ricky Louis

North Texas have a deep goalkeeping group led by B. Thompson, with several young options behind him. In defence, players such as Alvaro Augusto, J. Biggar, Leandro and Enzo Newman provide a blend of experience and youth, while midfield options like F. Aroyameh, N. James, M. Luccin and T. Ospina suggest energy and technical quality. In attack, the likes of E. Nys and Ricky Louis head a youthful forward line that fits the club’s aggressive, high-scoring home profile.

St. Louis City II Possible Starting Lineup

GK: B. Lundt; Defenders: K. Hiebert, L. MacNaughton, F. Fall, T. Totland; Midfielders: E. Löwen, T. Ostrák, M. Perez, C. Pearson; Forwards: Jeong Sang-Bin, P. Ault

St. Louis City II have strong experience at the back with goalkeeper B. Lundt and centre-backs like K. Hiebert and L. MacNaughton. Full-backs F. Fall and T. Totland add balance. In midfield, creative and box-to-box profiles such as E. Löwen and T. Ostrák are complemented by younger options like M. Perez and C. Pearson. Up front, Jeong Sang-Bin and P. Ault headline a varied attacking group that has powered the team to 31 goals in 16 matches.

North Texas Team News

No significant absences reported.

St. Louis City II Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

North Texas:

• None reported.

St. Louis City II:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: North Texas vs St. Louis City II

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Double chance North Texas or Draw. With North Texas given a 35% chance to win and the draw also at 35%, against 30% for St. Louis City II, backing the hosts not to lose aligns with the probabilities and their strong home scoring record.
• Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. North Texas matches average 3.4 goals (25 scored, 23 conceded in 14), while St. Louis City II games average 3.6 (31 scored, 27 conceded in 16). The head-to-head has produced multiple 2+ goal games, so a goals-based angle looks justified.
• Value Tip: Both teams to score. North Texas have failed to score in only 5 of 14 matches, and St. Louis City II have failed to score just twice in 16. With both sides avoiding draws and playing open football, BTTS offers value based on their attacking records and defensive vulnerabilities.

How to Watch North Texas vs St. Louis City II

Broadcast rights vary by region; check local listings or the official tournament website for details.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.