Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

This UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round second leg at Turkestan Arena sets up as a finely poised tie between Kairat Almaty and Levski Sofia. The Bulgarian side carries a slender 1-0 advantage from the first leg in Sofia on 4 August 2026, leaving everything to play for in Kazakhstan.

For Kairat Almaty, the task is clear: overturn the one-goal deficit at home, where they have been more efficient in front of goal in this Champions League campaign. Levski Sofia, meanwhile, arrive unbeaten in the competition so far, with an impressive defensive record and a more potent attack over five matches. With progression to the next qualifying round at stake, this clash has all the ingredients of a tight, tactical encounter that will interest fans and bettors alike.

Stats suggest a balanced matchup: Kairat’s solid home scoring rate contrasts with Levski’s unbeaten run and slightly stronger attacking metrics. Market odds and prediction models lean towards Levski avoiding defeat again, but the home advantage and Kairat’s need to chase the game should create a more open second leg than the 1-0 in Sofia.

Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia Key Stats

• Kairat Almaty have won 3 of their 5 UEFA Champions League fixtures this season, scoring 6 and conceding 3.
• The only previous meeting between these sides came on 4 August 2026, when Levski Sofia beat Kairat Almaty 1-0 at Georgi Asparuhov Stadium in the UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round.
• Levski Sofia are unbeaten in 5 Champions League matches this season (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 goals and conceding just 3, with 3 clean sheets.

Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia — Tale of the Tape

• Position: Not available vs Not available
• Points: Not available vs Not available
• Goals For: Not available vs Not available
• Goals Against: Not available vs Not available
• Clean Sheets: Kairat Almaty 2 (tournament statistics) vs Levski Sofia 3 (tournament statistics)

Traditional group or league standings are not yet in play at this qualifying stage, but tournament statistics across five matches give a clear picture of how each side has approached this campaign. Kairat Almaty have 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 fixtures, with a total of 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. Their home attack has been efficient, averaging 2.0 goals per game, while conceding just 0.5 at Turkestan Arena-equivalent venues in this run.

Levski Sofia’s profile is that of a controlled, unbeaten side: 3 wins and 2 draws, 9 goals scored and only 3 conceded. All three of their victories have come at home, where they have not conceded a single goal in this campaign, while their away matches have produced two draws with 3 goals scored and 3 conceded. The Bulgarian club’s slightly higher attacking output and extra clean sheet underline why they are marginally favoured to progress, but the lack of an away defeat also shows they are comfortable managing tricky away legs.

Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia Key Matchups

Reinaldo vs Kairat Almaty Defence Unit

Levski Sofia’s standout attacking threat in this Champions League run has been Reinaldo. The Brazilian attacker has made 5 appearances, all as a starter, and scored 2 of Levski’s 9 goals. Despite limited minutes (75 recorded), he has been efficient in front of goal, with no bookings and no missed penalties. His movement and finishing will test a Kairat back line that has conceded only 3 goals in 5 matches and kept 2 clean sheets. If Reinaldo finds space between the lines, Kairat’s experienced defenders such as Lucas Áfrico and Luís Mata (from the squad list) will have to be disciplined to prevent an away goal that would leave the hosts needing at least two.

Álex Centelles vs Kairat Almaty Wide Attack

Another key figure for Levski is Álex Centelles, who leads the team in assists in this Champions League campaign with 1 assist from 5 appearances. Used both as a starter and substitute (2 starts, 3 appearances off the bench, 69 minutes), the Spanish defender offers width and delivery from deep. His ability to contribute in build-up play without compromising defensive solidity (no goals conceded in his individual stats and no cards) will be crucial against Kairat’s wide forwards such as Edmilson, Marc Gual, Jorginho and S. Zeballos from the home squad. If Centelles can pin Kairat’s wingers back and still support Reinaldo and A. Oko-Flex, Levski can both protect their lead and threaten on the counter.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These clubs have only just met for the first time in European competition, with the first leg in Sofia setting the tone for this tie. That match was tight, low-scoring, and decided by fine margins, which may again be the case in Turkestan.

• 4 August 2026: Levski Sofia 1-0 Kairat Almaty (UEFA Champions League)

Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia Prediction

Form and underlying numbers point to a very balanced second leg. Kairat’s recent Champions League run (3 wins, 2 losses) shows they are capable of strong home performances, with 4 goals scored and only 1 conceded at home in this campaign. Their goals tend to come late, with a significant share arriving between the 76th and 90th minutes, which suggests they grow into games and could be dangerous if the tie is still alive in the final quarter.

Levski Sofia’s unbeaten run (DWWDW) across 5 Champions League fixtures underlines their resilience. They average 1.8 goals per game and concede just 0.6, with all three clean sheets coming at home. Away from Sofia, they have been more open, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5 per match, which hints that Kairat will get chances in front of their own fans. The prediction model gives Kairat only a 10% chance of winning in 90 minutes, with a 45% probability for a draw and 45% for a Levski victory. That aligns with the first leg pattern and Levski’s superior attacking metrics.

Given Kairat’s need to chase the game and Levski’s comfort in managing tight contests, this looks set up for a cautious first half, with more space and chances after the break. With no reliable goal-line prediction from the model (goals fields are thresholds, not scores), a conservative scoreline in line with Levski’s slight edge and the draw-heavy probability profile is appropriate.

Predicted Score: Kairat Almaty 1-1 Levski Sofia

Kairat Almaty Recent Form

In this Champions League campaign, Kairat Almaty’s recent form reads WWLWL across 5 matches. They have been strong at home, winning both fixtures with a combined score of 4-1, but more fragile away, losing 2 of 3. Overall they average 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, with 2 clean sheets and 2 matches where they failed to score, both on the road. Their pattern suggests a solid but not explosive side, especially reliant on home advantage.

Levski Sofia Recent Form

Levski Sofia’s Champions League form is DWWDW over 5 fixtures, underlining their consistency and unbeaten record. All three wins have come at home with an aggregate of 6-0, while both away games ended in draws with a 3-3 combined score. They average 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match, with 3 clean sheets and no games without scoring. This balance between attack and defence makes them a difficult side to beat over 90 minutes.

Kairat Almaty Possible Starting Lineup

GK: T. Anarbekov or B. Aldashev; Defenders: Lucas Áfrico, Luís Mata, A. Martynovich, L. Kurgin; Midfielders: A. Sadybekov, D. Kasabulat, J. Oksanen, G. Mendonsa; Forwards: Edmilson, Marc Gual, Jorginho.

Kairat’s squad list suggests a blend of experienced defenders (Lucas Áfrico, Luís Mata, A. Martynovich) and a youthful supporting cast. Their tournament statistics show they have alternated between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3, with 4-2-3-1 used most often. Expect a back four protected by two central midfielders, with creative players like J. Oksanen and G. Mendonsa linking to a front three that includes finishers such as Edmilson and Marc Gual. With no confirmed absences, the coach can lean on his strongest defensive unit to keep Levski out while pushing full-backs forward when chasing the tie.

Levski Sofia Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Lukov; Defenders: Maicon, N. Serafimov, Aldair, Álex Centelles; Midfielders: Serginho, E. El Moubarik, M. Soula or Everton Bala; Forwards: Reinaldo, A. Oko-Flex, J. Perea or R. Kirilov.

Levski have mostly lined up in a 4-3-3, with occasional use of 4-4-2, and their squad composition supports that shape. A back four featuring Maicon, N. Serafimov and Aldair has been central to their defensive solidity, while Álex Centelles offers width and delivery from the left. In midfield, players like Serginho and E. El Moubarik can provide balance and ball progression, with M. Soula or Everton Bala adding work rate. Up front, the combination of Reinaldo’s goals, A. Oko-Flex’s support from wide areas and a central striker such as J. Perea or veteran R. Kirilov gives Levski multiple scoring options and the ability to counter-attack if they sit deeper to protect their aggregate lead.

Kairat Almaty Team News

No significant absences reported.

Levski Sofia Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Kairat Almaty:

• None reported.

Levski Sofia:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Levski Sofia Double Chance (Draw or Away). Prediction probabilities give Kairat only a 10% chance of winning, with 45% each for draw and Levski. Across the bookmakers, Levski are slight underdogs in the straight 1X2 (away odds around 2.62–2.88, implying roughly 34.7–38.2% win probability), but the model strongly favours them not to lose. Combining the draw and away outcomes into a double chance market offers a safer angle that aligns with their unbeaten DWWDW form and Kairat’s two away defeats.
• Goals Tip: Under 2.5 Goals. Both sides average 0.6 goals conceded per game, and the first leg finished 1-0. Kairat’s matches have seen under 2.5 goals in all 5 fixtures, while Levski’s defensive record (3 clean sheets, only 3 conceded) also points towards a tight contest. Although specific under/over odds are not listed, this market is statistically supported by both teams’ Champions League scoring and conceding patterns.
• Value Tip: Reinaldo to Score Anytime (if market available). Reinaldo has 2 goals in 5 appearances and is Levski’s top scorer in this campaign. With Kairat needing to push forward to overturn the deficit, spaces should open for counter-attacks, suiting a direct attacker like Reinaldo. In the absence of specific player odds, his scoring record relative to Levski’s 9 goals suggests he is a logical value angle among potential goalscorers.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.