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Supercomputer Forecasts Final Standings for Champions League League Phase

As the 2026/27 Champions League season nears, a supercomputer has analyzed thousands of simulations to predict how the initial league phase will conclude. With all clubs’ opponents now set, these projections offer a glimpse into which teams might thrive or struggle early in the tournament.

Paris Saint-Germain remain favorites to secure their third consecutive European title but face stiff competition from Premier League champions Arsenal, alongside powerhouses like Bayern Munich, Barcelona, and Real Madrid. The revamped league phase format, introduced in 2024/25, means every match result heavily influences a team’s path forward.

Teams Predicted at the Bottom

Azerbaijan's debutants Sabah FK are expected to struggle, anchored at the bottom with just 2.9 points predicted, thanks to a daunting lineup of opponents. Other clubs likely to face challenges include Slovan Bratislava (3.7 points), Shakhtar Donetsk playing home games at Chelsea (4.9 points), LASK (5.6 points), and Slavia Prague (5.7 points).

Viking FK are placed 31st with 5.9 points, aiming to emulate Norway's recent European successes. They trail just behind Feyenoord and AEK Athens. At 28th, Galatasaray remain unpredictable, capable of both strong victories and heavy defeats.

  • 36. Sabah: 2.9 points
  • 35. Slovan Bratislava: 3.7 points
  • 34. Shakhtar Donetsk: 4.9 points
  • 33. LASK: 5.6 points
  • 32. Slavia Prague: 5.7 points
  • 31. Viking: 5.9 points
  • 30. Feyenoord: 6.9 points
  • 29. AEK Athens: 7.9 points
  • 28. Galatasaray: 8.5 points

Middle Table Battles

Villarreal (9 points), Club Brugge (9.3), and Real Betis (9.6) are projected to miss direct qualification, heading instead into playoff rounds. Real Betis might just fall short due to goal difference behind Lille (also 9.6 points). The same point total applies to RC Lens, setting up intense late-stage clashes.

Bodo/Glimt, RB Leipzig, and Fenerbahce seem poised for a smoother playoff path. Despite reaching last season’s semi-finals, Atletico Madrid ranks 19th with 10.9 points, signaling a tougher campaign ahead.

  • 27. Villarreal: 9.0 points
  • 26. Club Brugge: 9.3 points
  • 25. Real Betis: 9.6 points
  • 24. Lille: 9.6 points
  • 23. RC Lens: 9.6 points
  • 22. Bodo/Glimt: 10.0 points
  • 21. RB Leipzig: 10.6 points
  • 20. Fenerbahce: 10.8 points
  • 19. Atletico Madrid: 10.9 points

Upper Mid-Table Teams

Como, managed by former Arsenal and Chelsea midfielder Cesc Fabregas, have a remarkable story and are forecasted to reach 11 points. Porto and PSV closely follow. Sporting CP stand at 11.7 points, just behind Serie A sides Roma (12) and Napoli (12.5), who boast stars like Kevin De Bruyne and Rasmus Hojlund.

Borussia Dortmund sit 12th with 13.2 points, still recovering after a 2024 final appearance and roster changes. VfB Stuttgart narrowly miss the top 10 despite facing easier opponents, while Europa League winners Aston Villa rank 10th with 14 points.

  • 18. Como: 11.0 points
  • 17. Porto: 11.0 points
  • 16. PSV: 11.3 points
  • 15. Sporting CP: 11.7 points
  • 14. Roma: 12.0 points
  • 13. Napoli: 12.5 points
  • 12. Borussia Dortmund: 13.2 points
  • 11. VfB Stuttgart: 13.3 points
  • 10. Aston Villa: 14.0 points

Top Contenders and Playoff Risks

Manchester United, returning to Europe's elite, are projected 9th with 14.1 points, meaning they must navigate extra playoffs. Manager Michael Carrick faces a demanding schedule this season.

Barcelona and Liverpool place 8th and 7th respectively, just ahead of United. Inter Milan (6th) aim to build on recent finals appearances and challenge for the trophy again.

Real Madrid show strong improvement under Jose Mourinho, ranked 5th with 16.5 points. Manchester City, with 16.9 points, look set to continue their successful era under Pep Guardiola.

PSG earn 17.1 points, close behind leaders Bayern Munich (18.9 points) and Arsenal (17.7 points), who top the table this time around.

  • 9. Manchester United: 14.1 points
  • 8. Barcelona: 14.8 points
  • 7. Liverpool: 15.4 points
  • 6. Inter Milan: 16.2 points
  • 5. Real Madrid: 16.5 points
  • 4. Manchester City: 16.9 points
  • 3. Paris Saint-Germain: 17.1 points
  • 2. Arsenal: 17.7 points
  • 1. Bayern Munich: 18.9 points

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