Liverpool W vs Arsenal W: FA WSL Match Preview

Liverpool W host Arsenal W at Anfield in FA WSL Regular Season - 22, with the two clubs coming into this game from very different positions in the table. Liverpool sit 11th with 17 points from 21 matches (4-5-12, goal difference -11, 20 scored and 31 conceded), while Arsenal arrive as title contenders in 2nd place on 48 points from 21 games (14-6-1, goal difference +37, 50 scored and 13 conceded). The prediction model clearly sides with the visitors, naming Arsenal W as the expected winner despite a surprisingly balanced probability split of 10% home, 45% draw and 45% away.

Looking at form over a comparable recent window, Arsenal’s underlying numbers are far stronger. In their last five matches, Arsenal’s composite form index is 87%, with a perfect 100% attacking score and 79% in defence, averaging 4.2 goals for and 0.6 against per game (21 scored, 3 conceded). Liverpool’s last-five profile is much more modest: 47% overall form, 36% attack and 71% defence, with 5 goals scored and 4 conceded (1.0 for, 0.8 against on average). Over the league campaign, Arsenal’s attack has been prolific at 49 goals in 20 league fixtures used in the prediction engine (2.5 per game), while Liverpool’s is much more limited at 20 in 21 (1.0 per game).

Defensively, the contrast is just as stark. Arsenal concede only 13 in those 20 fixtures (0.7 per game), supported by 10 clean sheets and only 3 matches where they have failed to score. Liverpool, by comparison, have allowed 31 in 21 (1.5 per game), with 4 clean sheets and 9 matches without a goal. The comparison module in the prediction data heavily favours Arsenal across all key indices: 65% vs 35% on form, 81% vs 19% in attack, 57% vs 43% in defence, and 82% vs 18% in goal power. The Poisson-based distribution gives Arsenal a 78% edge, and the overall combined rating sits at 73.8% for Arsenal against 26.2% for Liverpool.

Head-to-Head Data

Head-to-head data, separated carefully by competition, reinforces Arsenal’s status as favourites but also shows Liverpool are capable of an upset. In FA WSL play, the most recent meeting on 2025-12-06 at Emirates Stadium ended Arsenal W 2–1 Liverpool W. Earlier in the 2024 FA WSL calendar, on 2025-03-22 at Emirates Stadium, Arsenal W beat Liverpool W 4–0. In the 2024 FA WSL on 2024-12-15 at St Helens Stadium, Liverpool W 0–1 Arsenal W. On 2024-01-28 in the 2023 FA WSL at Prenton Park, Liverpool W lost 0–2 to Arsenal W. Going back further in the league, on 2023-10-01 at Emirates Stadium, Arsenal W 0–1 Liverpool W, showing Liverpool can win away in London. On 2023-03-08 in the 2022 FA WSL at Meadow Park, Arsenal W beat Liverpool W 2–0, and on 2022-10-23 at Prenton Park in the 2022 FA WSL, Liverpool W 0–2 Arsenal W. In cup play, Liverpool pulled off a notable FA Women’s Cup shock on 2025-03-09 at Mangata Pay UK Stadium, beating Arsenal W 1–0 in the quarter-finals, while earlier in that competition on 2022-02-27 at Prenton Park, Liverpool W lost 0–4 to Arsenal W. An even earlier FA WSL clash on 2020-02-13 at Lookers Vauxhall Stadium finished Liverpool W 2–3 Arsenal W.

Betting Perspective

From a betting perspective, the official prediction engine’s advice is explicit: “Winner : Arsenal W”. Despite the nominal 45% draw probability, every comparative metric tilts towards the away side – superior attack, tighter defence, stronger recent form and a dominant statistical profile in the goal and Poisson models. Liverpool’s home record (3-3-4, 12 scored, 12 conceded) suggests they can be competitive and keep scorelines respectable, but their low attacking output and high rate of failing to score make it difficult to justify a strong case for an upset.

With no pre-match odds feed provided, we cannot quote specific prices, but the model’s structure implies Arsenal should be a clear favourite on the 1X2 market. The most data-aligned angle is to follow the prediction advice and back Arsenal W to win, with the draw as the only serious risk factor rather than a realistic path to a Liverpool victory.