Final Day FPL Insights: Who Starts and Who Sits
Gameweek 38 always feels less like a final chapter and more like a plot twist. Benches suddenly matter. “Nailed” players do not. And this year, rotation anxiety has taken over the conversation.
Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar cuts straight to the question everyone is asking: who actually plays, who gets wrapped in cotton wool, and is it worth tearing up a settled squad for one last roll of the dice?
Who still has something to play for?
Strip away the noise and the picture is surprisingly clear.
According to Fusion Sim, the only live battles are for the European spots – sixth to eighth – and the relegation scrap involving West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. That gives us a core group of clubs with a strong incentive to go full strength.
It points to minimal rotation at:
- Liverpool
- Bournemouth
- Brighton and Hove Albion
- Chelsea
- Sunderland
- Brentford
- West Ham
- Spurs
That does not automatically make them the best FPL hunting ground. Final-day matches between “on the beach” sides can explode into goals when structure disappears and defenders mentally clock off. But it does mean your existing assets from these clubs are, in most cases, worth trusting for starts.
The trick is not blindly buying from them. It’s knowing when to hold and when to move on the big hitters from the title contenders.
Arsenal: trust the defence, doubt the attack
Mikel Arteta offered nothing concrete in his press conference, but training ground clues tell a story.
David Raya, Bukayo Saka and William Saliba all worked individually away from the main group on Thursday. They could all start on Sunday. They might not. Of that trio, Saka and Saliba look the likeliest candidates for a rest.
There is a clear logic at play. Noni Madueke did not even get on the pitch against Burnley. Handing him minutes against Crystal Palace while preserving Saka for a late cameo would protect Arsenal’s star man without entirely discarding the game. Raya, meanwhile, already has the Golden Glove wrapped up but is chasing the club record for most clean sheets by an Arsenal goalkeeper in a single season – a powerful personal incentive to play.
Up front, Viktor Gyokeres is no sure thing to start. Gabriel Jesus or even Kai Havertz could lead the line. However Arteta shuffles it, Zophar does not see this as a high-scoring Arsenal fixture.
His verdict is ruthless: if you have free transfers, look to move your Arsenal attackers on. Do not buy into them now. If you own both Saka and Gyokeres, Saka is the one he would sell first.
Manchester City: one last show at the Etihad?
All eyes turn to Pep Guardiola and what could be his farewell.
At the time of writing, Guardiola has not officially confirmed his departure, but Zophar expects that to come in the pre-match press conference. The occasion is already loaded: potentially Pep’s last game, and the first match with City’s new stand open, adding 7,000 extra fans to the Etihad.
The players will want a statement performance.
Erling Haaland has a World Cup on the horizon this summer, so the idea of a rest is not outlandish. Zophar still expects him to start, perhaps with an early substitution once the job is done. Phil Foden is also backed to be in the XI, which immediately casts doubt over Rayan Cherki’s minutes.
Nico O’Reilly is harder to read. His game time feels as volatile as Antoine Semenyo’s, with no firm pattern to cling to.
The fixture itself looks ripe for goals. Aston Villa are still emotionally and physically drained from their midweek Europa League win. That tilt towards a high-scoring contest shapes Zophar’s advice: keep Haaland and O’Reilly, but be prepared to move on Cherki and Semenyo.
At the back, John Stones is flagged as “likely to start”, with the added narrative that this is expected to be his final game for City. For managers on a Free Hit or looking for a single defensive punt, that matters.
Aston Villa and Manchester United: opposite ends of the spectrum
The message on Aston Villa is blunt.
Expect mass rotation. Treat their players as obvious sells or bench options. If you are still clinging to them, you probably know the risk already.
Manchester United’s situation is more straightforward. Zophar expects Bruno Fernandes, Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo to start. Casemiro is already ruled out, as Michael Carrick has confirmed. Beyond that, United’s FPL relevance is thin; most managers simply do not own many others.
Liverpool: one more full-strength push
Liverpool look set to go strong.
Dominik Szoboszlai and Virgil van Dijk are tipped to start, with Mohamed Salah also in line for inclusion, subject to Arne Slot’s press conference. For those still holding the Egyptian, there is no strong reason to jump off unless you are chasing an explosive differential.
Elsewhere, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is one of the few other highly owned names on Zophar’s radar. He should start and remains a viable option for those already invested.
Hits on the final day? Handle with care
The temptation to rip up your squad with hits in Gameweek 38 is always there, especially if you are 10, 20 or 30 points behind in a mini-league. Zophar is clear: he is not a fan of taking hits just to “guess” rotation.
If you are reacting to reliable team leaks, that is different. There should be plenty of those floating around before the deadline. Until then, use your bench. Final days are chaotic. Random cameos, freak hauls and unexpected rests are part of the landscape.
Let the chaos work for you, not against you.
Building the differential Free Hit XI
For those with the Free Hit chip still intact, this is where the fun begins. How do you climb above rivals loaded with six Arsenal and City players?
Zophar’s answer is to lean into fixtures, motivation and upside.
Defence: Spurs, West Ham and a City farewell
If he had to invest a free transfer in defence this week, he would look almost exclusively at West Ham and Spurs. Both have something tangible to play for and both offer defenders with attacking threat.
Pedro Porro brings that familiar marauding presence from wing-back, while Konstantinos Mavropanos offers set-piece danger and a route into a defence expected to be fully engaged.
Add John Stones to that mix. With his likely final City appearance on the cards, he shapes up as a high-upside, short-term punt.
Midfield: goals where structure breaks
Jack Hinshelwood headlines the midfield differentials. Over the last six Gameweeks, he sits top among midfielders for big chances. With Casemiro out, Brighton should find space and opportunities. Zophar even goes as far as to say he prefers Hinshelwood as a captaincy option over Salah.
Burnley’s clash with Wolverhampton Wanderers could be a wild one. Neither side wants to finish bottom, and that desperation often strips away caution. Zophar would have liked Zian Flemming, but with stronger forward options in mind, he settles on Jaidon Anthony as the midfield pick from that fixture.
Morgan Gibbs-White completes the trio. Nottingham Forest’s performance against Manchester United showed they have little appetite for deep, conservative defending. On home turf, they should carry plenty of attacking threat against a Bournemouth side that ranks in the bottom five for expected goals conceded in away matches.
Forwards: penalties, minutes and motivation
Up front, the pattern is clear: penalties, 90 minutes, and teams with something on the line.
Richarlison and Jarrod Bowen tick every box. Both are on spot-kicks. Both are central to their sides’ hopes of avoiding relegation. Both are almost guaranteed heavy minutes.
Alongside them, William Osula emerges as a quietly powerful differential. He ranks in the top three for expected goals over the last six Gameweeks, and with Marco Silva’s departure from Craven Cottage imminent, that match has the feel of a loosened, goal-heavy send-off.
The curtain comes down on the 2025/26 FPL season with more questions than answers, as it always does. Managers will spend the final hours before the deadline chasing leaks, second-guessing line-ups and hunting that one differential that flips a mini-league.
The decisions are yours now. How bold are you prepared to be on the final day?
